Brighton v Crystal Palace: Oppose unreliable Seagulls in Sunday's early Premier League KO | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back to preview Brighton v Crystal Palace in the Premier League

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe previews Brighton v Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon where he is unconvinced by the unpredictable hosts...

Brighton v Crystal PalaceSunday February 8, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Both sides in terrible form

The M23 derby on Sunday afternoon takes place between two woefully out-of-form sides.

Hosts Brighton 1/1 have failed to win 10 of their last 11 Premier League matches and sit 13th, only 11 points above the relegation zone. Visitors Crystal Palace 27/10 have failed to win their last nine Premier League games leaving them 15th and only nine points above the drop. So it's hardly surprising that, as a punter I do not want to back either side to win. There's been a depressing element surrounding Crystal Palace recently with the departure of club captain Marc Guehi, FA Cup winning manager Oliver Glasner announcing he will be leaving at the end of the season and top scorer and talisman Jean-Philippe Mateta wanting to move but subsequently failing a medical at AC Milan.

Over/Under 2.5 goals a 50-50 shot

In terms of Over/Under 2.5 goals, both sides are pretty much 50-50 statistically. 50% of Brighton's games have seen Over 2.5 goals and 46% of Crystal Palace's have seen three or more. Home/Away wise, it's 50% for Brighton and 50% for Palace. This is similarly reflected in the odds with Over 2.5 a slight favourite at 3/4 and Under 2.5 the outsider at 19/20.

January transfer window does not bring many positives

If there's depression at Palace, it feels like there's something similar going on at Brighton with manager Fabian Hurzeler under pressure from some fans. Some questionable team selections and transfer business amongst this poor run means it's unlikely Albion will be able to match or surpass their joint-best haul in the Premier League of 62 points from last season. Allowing Brajan Gruda, Tom Watson and Diego Coppola to leave on loan late in the transfer window coupled with other squad options, in Evan Ferguson and Facundo Buananotte, already out on loan gives the impression the Seagulls have left themselves a little short. Perhaps they could do with a few of them back at the club to shake up the starting XI.

At least Palace were able to strengthen their frontline in the window, breaking their transfer record twice to sign firstly Brennan Johnson and then Jorgen Strand Larsen. Joining this pair is Evann Guessand on loan from Aston Villa - a player who managed 12 goals and nine assists for Nice in Ligue 1 last season. Despite Strand Larsen only scoring one goal this season, I think he might actually be the tonic Palace need to rectify this slump. Last season he scored 14 goals from 11.69 xG but this season Wolves have been so poor they've only generated 3.44 xG for him. For all of Mateta's qualities, one issue is he does seemingly miss too many chances, with 17 big chances missed - the second most in the league - and only eight goals scored compared to his 12.90 xG.

The best bet for Brighton v Palace

Palace are the leagues biggest underachievers in-front of goal underperforming by a massive 16 expected goals so if they can solve their goalscoring issues, success might be just around the corner. Based on expected points, they sit above Brighton in the table so it doesn't make sense that the Seagulls are odds-on. Two sides of equal ability would normally mean the home side priced at around 6/5. So, giving everything we know, it makes sense to oppose Brighton and back the Draw and Crystal Palace.

Now read Mark O'Haire's Premier League tips featuring a 7/5 bet for Brighton v Palace

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