Champions League permutations explained: What do Liverpool need to secure qualification? | OneFootball

With just two matches remaining in their Premier League season, Liverpool still aren’t sure of their place in the 2026/27 Champions League.

The performances of English clubs in Europe this term (including the Reds) have made the task considerably easier for Arne Slot’s side, with fifth place domestically being good enough to secure a ticket for UEFA’s flagship club competition.

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That’s why, despite the frustrating home draw against Chelsea on Saturday, LFC still have a 97.34% probability of being in next season’s Champions League, according to Opta calculations.

What’s the current state of play in the Champions League race?

Liverpool’s next match is away to Aston Villa, their direct opponents in the battle for fourth place, with sixth-placed Bournemouth still in with a chance of gatecrashing the top five after their win at Fulham on Saturday.

Brighton can still mathematically finish fifth, but only if they win their two remaining matches and one of the Reds or Villa were to lose both of theirs. However, if Unai Emery’s side win the Europa League and finish fifth, sixth place in the English top flight would be enough for Champions League qualification.

Remaining fixtures

How can Liverpool ensure Champions League qualification?

The simplest scenario – in theory at least – is that if Liverpool win at Villa Park on Friday night, their top-five place is guaranteed and they can relax for the final-day fixture at home to Brentford.

A draw would keep them in fourth place and would realistically mean they need to simply match Aston Villa’s final-day result, with the Reds having a substantially better goal difference.

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Even a loss on Friday mightn’t be fatal, as Brighton need maximum points and Bournemouth require at least four, along with a significant goal difference swing. If the Seagulls fail to win at Leeds and the Cherries lose to Manchester City, Liverpool will qualify regardless of what else happens.

The danger for Slot’s side is that they lose to Villa and fail to beat Brentford, while the two south-coast clubs win both of their games. In that scenario, the Villans would finish fourth, so sixth place wouldn’t be a Champions League position irrespective of what happens in the Europa League final.

For all the frustration of the draw against Chelsea, and another opportunity missed at ensuring a top-five finish, the Reds’ fate is still very much in their own hands, with the chasing pack having scant margin for error.

That said, it’d be nice to just get the job done on Friday night and not have to keep worrying going into the final day.