Champions League Permutations: Ultimate guide to every game in Matchday 8

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·25 de enero de 2026

Champions League Permutations: Ultimate guide to every game in Matchday 8

UEFA Champions League

It's all to play for on Matchday 8 in the Champions League

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Matchday 8 in the Champions League is arguably the best night of the whole competition with all 36 clubs in action at the same time. Mike Norman brings us the current standings, stats, betting odds and those all important permutations for what each team needs to do to keep their dreams alive...

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Qualifying Methods

Position 1st-8th = Qualify automatically for the Round of 16 (8 teams)
Position 9th-24th = Qualify for a two-leg play-off (16 teams)
Position 25th-36th = Elimination from the competition (12 teams)
Play-off Winner = Qualify for the Round of 16 (8 teams)
Play-off Loser = Elimination from the competition (8 teams)

Ajax v Olympiakos

Ajax must win to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will take them above Olympiakos but because of their poor goal difference they would likely need two of PSV, Athletic Bilbao, Napoli and Copenhagen to lose and none of Cub Brugge, Bodo / Glimt, Benfica, Pafos and Union SG to win.
Olympiakos will qualify for the play-off round with a win over Ajax as long as at least two of the other nine teams on eight, nine or 10 points don't get the desired results to finish above Olympiakos.

Verdict

If you fancy Olympiakos to qualify for the play-offs then it's almost certain that the only way they will do it is by beating Ajax. A draw gives them a tiny chance of finishing in the top 24 but they would need a remarkable set of results to go in their favour. With that in mind, backing the Greek outfit at 7/5 in the Match Odds market is the way to play.

Arsenal v Kairat

Arsenal have qualified for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish and will finish top of the League Stage if they avoid defeat at home to Kairat, or if they lose and Bayern Munich fail to beat PSV.
Kairat have already been eliminated from the competition.

Verdict

No betting opinion.

Athletic Bilbao v Sporting Lisbon

Athletic Bilbao will qualify for the play-off round with a win over Sporting Lisbon as long as at least two of the other nine teams on 8, 9 or 10 points don't get the desired results to finish above Athletic Bilbao.
Sporting Lisbon are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Athletic Bilbao to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win (Real Madrid and Liverpool) or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Sporting Lisbon on goal difference.

Verdict

Like the Olympiakos scenario, Athletic Bilbao will most likely need a win to finish in the play-off places as a draw will take them up 20th at best given their poor goal difference. That would mean that seven clubs could overtake them with a win and three overtake them with a draw; if five of those 10 teams got their desired results, Bilbao would be eliminated. Consider backing Athletic Bilbao at 21/20 in the Match Odds market rather than at 1/3 to finish 9th-24th.

Atletico Madrid v Bodo / Glimt

Atletico Madrid are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Bodo / Glimt to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win (Real Madrid and Liverpool) or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Atletico Madrid on goal difference.
Bodo / Glimt must beat Atletico Madrid to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will move them up to nine points, but that would still leave nine clubs on seven points or better that could finish above them with a win or draw, and a further two clubs on six points that could finish above them if winning and finishing with a better goal difference.

Verdict

Even though they are two place and two goals worse off than Sporting Lisbon, Atletico Madrid are a much shorter price to finish in the top eight and that is largely down to them being at home to 28th-place Bodo / Glimt. Effectively only a win will see them finish in the top eight however, so given they're 8/13 in that market and 1/4 on the Match Odds market, the former is probably the way to play. Though do bear in mind that even with a win they could still miss out on a top eight finish.

This is a simple one if you want to chance Bodo / Glimt to finish in the play-off places, just back them in the Match Odds at the better price of 8/1 as only a win will be good enough.

Barcelona v Copenhagen

Barcelona are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Athletic Bilbao to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Barcelona on goal difference.
Copenhagen will qualify for the play-off round with a win over Barcelona as long as at least two of the other nine teams on eight, nine or 10 points don't get the desired results to finish above Copenhagen.

Note (teams on 13 points)

You might be wondering that if Barcelona are currently ninth, and two of the teams above them on the same points play each other (meaning one has to drop points), then why won't the La Liga outfit be guaranteed to finish in the top eight.

That's because there are lots of other teams on 13 points and three more on 14 and 15 points. If Barcelona were to play now and win, they'd move up to third in the table, but that would still mean that nine clubs - Real Madrid, Liverpool, Tottenham, Paris SG or Newcastle, Chelsea, Sporting Lisbon, Man City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta - could overtake them.

Verdict

As you will be starting to gather, the scenario for Barcelona is the same as every other club on 13 points, they need a win and some of the other teams not to win or win by a margin that gives them a better goal difference than the La Liga side. Having said that, with home advantage they really ought to win be a few goals against Copenhagen and climb into the top eight.

As we've said with two other teams on eight points, Olympiakos and Athletic Bilbao, realistically Copenhagen's only chance of finishing in the play-off places is to beat Barcelona, so you're best served backing them at 15/1 in the Match Odds if you want to get them on side.

Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal

Bayer Leverkusen will qualify for the play-off round with a win over Villarreal. They will also qualify for the play-off round with a draw if at least two of the other eight teams on seven, eight and nine points fail to win, or lose in Marseille's case.
Villarreal have already been eliminated from the competition.

Verdict

No betting opinion.

Benfica v Real Madrid

Benfica must beat Real Madrid to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will move them up to nine points, but that would still leave nine clubs on seven points or better that could finish above them with a win or draw, and a further two clubs on six points that could finish above them if winning and finishing with a better goal difference.
Real Madrid effectively just need to avoid defeat against Benfica to qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish thanks to their excellent positive goal difference in comparison to some of the teams on 13 points. With a defeat, Real Madrid would require five of the 10 teams immediately below them to fail to win to remain in the top eight, and one of them (Paris SG or Newcastle) will definitely fail to win.

Verdict

Only a win will see Benfica make the play-offs, they're 4/1 to do so and 16/5 in the Match Odds market, so it's likely that the former price will be the most popular. But remember, they won't be guaranteed to finish in the top 24 even with a win.

Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan

Borussia Dortmund are guaranteed a play-off place and must beat Inter Milan to have the slimmest chance of finishing in the top eight. A win will take them to 14 points, but with 11 teams on 12, 13 or 14 points already, as their top eight odds of 125/1 suggest, even a win is extremely unlikely to see them break into the automatic qualifying positions.
Inter Milan are guaranteed a play-off place and must beat Borussia Dortmund to have a chance of finishing in the top eight. With a win they'll move up to 15 points and would then require at least five of the 11 teams on 13, 14 or 15 points not to win, or draw in the case of Real Madrid and Liverpool.

Verdict

At odds of 125/1 and 14/1 respectively to finish in the top eight, and with both teams already guaranteed to qualify for the play-offs, Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan is effectively a dead rubber. It's impossible to guess how they'll approach it and therefore it's a game to avoid from a betting perspective.

Club Brugge v Marseille

Club Brugge must beat Marseille to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will move them above Marseille and up to 10 points, so they would require four teams out of Copenhagen, Napoli, Olympiakos, Athletic Bilbao, PSV, Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen (not to win), Qarabag and Galatasaray (not to at least draw) not to win or draw.
Marseille will qualify for the play-off places with a win over Club Brugge. Because of their better goal difference than the other two teams on nine points a draw is also likely to seem the qualify for the play-offs as long as six out of Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, PSV, Athletic Bilbao, Olympiakos, Napoli and Copenhagen fail to win. Even if six, or even all seven of those teams win Marseille would still qualify with a draw if both Galatasaray and Qarabag lose their games.

Verdict

The price for Club Brugge to finish 9th-24th is similar to their Match Odds price, so you may as well back them to win the game at 17/10 if you fancy them as you get paid out if they win, whereas a win doesn't guarantee they'll finish in the top 24.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham

Eintracht Frankfurt have already been eliminated from the competition.
Tottenham are guaranteed at least a play-off place but a win over Frankfurt will see them qualify for the Round of 16 by finishing in the top eight. A draw will also see Spurs finish in the top eight if at least five from Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea, Newcastle, Paris SG and Liverpool either fail to win or lose. At least one of those nine teams will fail to win as Paris SG play Newcastle.

Verdict

If you want to get Tottenham on side then backing them to finish in the top eight is the only way to play them. A win guarantees them a top eight finish so already you can see that the 10/11 is a marginally better price than their Match Odds price of 4/5, but when you consider that a draw will also give Spurs a chance of finishing in the top eight (though not guaranteed) then 10/11 for a Top 8 Finish is surely a better option than the Tottenham/Draw option at 2/9 in the Double Chance market.

Liverpool v Qarabag

Liverpool are guaranteed at least a play-off place but a win over Qarabag will see them qualify for the Round of 16 by finishing in the top eight. A draw will almost certainly see them finish in the top eight also as it will take them up to 16 points, meaning they'd need at least four from the teams on 13 and 14 points not to win, and from those teams two (Paris SG v Newcastle) play each other and two more (Atalanta and Atletico Madrid) have a much worse goal difference than the Reds, so a win for those teams is unlikely to move them above Liverpool.
Qarabag will qualify for the play-offs if they avoid defeat against Liverpool. Even a defeat - as long as it's not by a huge margin - is likely to see them qualify as it will require at least seven of the nine clubs immediately below them to either win (six teams) or draw (three teams) to eliminate them, hence there are no odds for Qarabag to finish 9th-24th.

Verdict

No betting opinion.

Manchester City v Galatasaray

Manchester City are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Galatasaray to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win (Real Madrid and Liverpool) or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Man City on goal difference.
Galatasaray will qualify for the play-offs if they avoid defeat against Man City. Even a defeat - as long as it's not by a huge margin - is likely to see them qualify as it will require at least seven of the nine clubs immediately below them to either win (six teams) or draw (three teams) to eliminate them, hence there are no odds for Galatasaray to finish 9th-24th.

Note (teams on 13 points)

Manchester City are the perfect team to use to try and explain further the complexity of finishing in the top eight for the eight teams on 13 points. City are 1/5 to win the game, so it's highly likely that they'll pick up the three points, and you'd think that would be good enough to finish in the top eight.

Yet they're only 4/5 to finish in the top eight and that's because - like all the other teams on 13 points - a win gives you a good chance, but you still need at least four from another eight teams - Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Real Madrid - to do you a favour. We could say five from 10 teams, but given PSG and Newcastle face each other we know that at least one of those teams will fail to win.

Verdict

No betting opinion.

Monaco v Juventus

Monaco will qualify for the play-off places with a win over Juventus. A draw will see them qualify for the play-offs also as long as six out of Marseille, Bayer Leverkusen (lose), PSV, Athletic Bilbao, Olympiakos, Napoli, Copenhagen and Club Brugge (fail to win) either lose or fail to win.
Juventus are guaranteed a play-off place and must beat Monaco to have a chance of finishing in the top eight. With a win they'll move up to 15 points and would then require at least five of the 11 teams on 13, 14 or 15 points not to win, or draw in the case of Real Madrid and Liverpool.

Verdict

Monaco need a win to guarantee finishing in the play-off places while a draw will give them a big chance also, but they're just 1/5 to do so even though a loss gives them a tiny chance of still finishing in the top 24. So instead, forget the loss scenario and take the 8/13 about Monaco/Draw in the Double Chance market if you want to get them on side.

Napoli v Chelsea

Napoli will qualify for the play-off round with a win over Chelsea as long as at least two of the other nine teams on eight, nine or 10 points don't get the desired results to finish above Napoli.
Chelsea are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Napoli to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win (Real Madrid and Liverpool) or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Chelsea on goal difference.

Verdict

As we've suggested with other teams that realistically must win to finish in the play-off places, consider instead backing them in the Match Odds market. True, Napoli could still finish in the top 24 with a draw, but a draw would take them to nine points which would leave the door open for 10 other teams on six, seven, eight and nine points to finish above them. Only a handful of those would need a positive result. Napoli can be backed at 17/10 to win the game.

PSV v Bayern Munich

PSV will almost certainly qualify for the play-off round with a win over Bayern Munich because of their much better goal difference than the teams in and around them. And because of their much better goal difference than some teams on six, seven, eight and nine points PSV will qualify for the play-off round with a draw if four of those 10 teams fail to win (eight teams) or draw (two teams).
Bayern Munich have qualified for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish and will finish top of the League Stage if they beat PSV, Arsenal lose to Kairat, and they turn the goal difference in their favour.

Verdict

The big question here is how fired up will Bayern Munich be to win? They won't be expecting the Champions League's bottom club - Kairat - to beat Arsenal which means they can't finish top of the league stage. They can afford to lose and still finish in the top four, and possibly still second. PSV need a win or draw to reach the play-off places so the 13/10 about PSV/Draw in the Double Chance market makes plenty of appeal.

Pafos v Slavia Prague

Pafos must win to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will take them up to nine and because of their much better goal difference would very likely keep them above Ajax and Union SG should they both win. That would mean that Pafos still need five of 10 teams to either fail to win (eight teams) or lose (two teams).
Slavia Prague have already been eliminated from the competition.

Verdict

No betting opinion.

Paris SG v Newcastle

Paris SG are guaranteed at least a play-off place and because of their much better goal difference than six of the other seven teams on 13 points a win over Newcastle will see them qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw will also see them finish in the top eight if at least four of Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea and Tottenham either fail to win or lose (Tottenham).
Newcastle are guaranteed at least a play-off place and because of their much better goal difference than six of the other seven teams on 13 points a win over Paris SG will see them qualify for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. A draw will also see them finish in the top eight if at least four of Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea and Tottenham either fail to win or lose (Tottenham).

Verdict

Arguably the game of the night as, because of their goal difference in relation to the other six teams on 13 points, it's effectively a straight shoot out between Paris SG and Newcastle to guarantee a top eight finish. But keep an eye on other scorelines, it may become apparent with some time to play that results are going both clubs' way, and that a draw will see them both qualify for the Round of 16 automatically. It's one for the in-play punters that's for sure.

Union SG v Atalanta

Union SG must win to have any chance of finishing in the play-off places. A win will take them up to nine but because of their poor goal difference they would likely need two of PSV, Athletic Bilbao, Olympiakos, Napoli and Copenhagen to lose and none of Cub Brugge, Bodo / Glimt, Benfica and Pafos to win.
Atalanta are guaranteed at least a play-off place and need a win over Union SG to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 courtesy of a top eight finish. With a win they will move ahead of at least one of Paris SG or Newcastle who play each other, but they would still require at least four of the other eight clubs on 13, 14 or 15 points either to fail to win (Real Madrid and Liverpool) or not win by a margin that would see them finish above Atalanta on goal difference. Though because of their poor goal difference compared to some other team on 13 points Atalanta are at a big disadvantage here.