Championship Play-Off Final Tips: Four factors and four bets to consider | OneFootball

When previewing a Championship Play-Off Final a lot of factors come to the fore.

Comparing each team's form on route to Wembley is an obvious consideration, and as we will discover, it's even more important than we may initially think. Then there is an assessment on how each team may hold up on the day. It simply cannot be understated how crucial a role the occasion plays in these £220m shoot-outs. We have seen before teams wilt.

This season's head-to-head record is another aspect always worth exploring, and lastly there is the factor that applies to every match, large or small - who has the difference-makers, fit, firing and ready to go?

End of season form

Let's leave the Play-Off semi-finals out of this. Why? Because they are a crazy, chaotic challenge in their own right, games to get through by any means necessary.

For the record though, the Blades comfortably progressed by thrashing Bristol City twice-over while Sunderland had to dig deep then deeper still, ending Coventry's season in the final minute of extra-time in the second leg.

What especially interests here however is their respective form across the last six games of the 2024/25 Championship campaign. That's because no team since Aston Villa in 2019 have won the final, despite having a worse set of results across their final six league outings than their counterpart.

The average points gain from winning sides in the last five years is 2 ppg across their final six league games. Sheffield United fall well short of that, picking up 1.1 ppg from early-April to early-May.Sunderland's P5 D1 L5 however is a different kettle of fish altogether.

The Blades are the form team therefore, but with results that would have them viewed as the out-of-form side most years. This sadly suggests a poor quality final awaits us this Saturday.

Been there, got the t-shirt

When it comes to priceless experience of the big stage, United definitely win out here, with Sunderland fielding the youngest line-up in the Championship on 27 game-weeks this term.

Granted, the Mackems enjoyed Play-Off success in 2021/22 but only four players who experienced Wembley joy that afternoon remain at the club. Elsewhere, Regis Le Bris' side is predominantly made up of young players who will view this weekend's clash as the biggest 90 minutes of their career to date.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, youngsters typically being fearless, but Sheffield United by comparison have learned knowledge of what it takes to prevail under pressure.

Not only is their squad well-stocked with Premier League players but Gustavo Hamer lost a Play-Off final with Coventry two years ago while Kieffer Moore scored the decisive goal that took Bournemouth up in 2022.

Head-to-Head

In late-November, Sheffield United won a tightly-contested affair at Bramall Lane 1-0. On New Year's Day, Sunderland got their revenge with a 2-1 victory in the North East.

There are two main takeaways from these promotion battles, the first being a high shot-count, with each side racking up 30 shots apiece across both games combined. Sunderland marginally take it in the SOT count, eight to seven.

A high volume of cards dished out also grabs the attention, with two dismissals in Yorkshire and all told a card brandished every 12.8 minutes across the games.

Play-Off Finals can often be fractious anyway, given the heightened stakes. These two already have form.

Difference-makers

Championship Player of the Season, Gustavo Hamer is an obvious starting point here and goes into the game in decent shape, having supplied four goal involvements in his last six starts.

Left-back Harrison Burrows is also worth looking out for, laying on three assists and scoring in the semi-finals.

As for Sunderland, Enzo Le fee assisted in each semi-final vs Coventry while Eliezer Mayenda has taken on four shots on target in his last three outings.

Hamer scored in the 2023 Play-Off Final and was a stand-out throughout. Lightning could very easily strike twice in this regard.

Now read Ste's Premier League Opta Statsheet here