Chelsea v Arsenal: Back a player card double in a heated clash at 13/1 | OneFootball

EFL Cup Tips

Stinch is back to preview Chelsea v Arsenal in the EFL Cup

Football tipster and odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe is back to preview Chelsea v Arsenal in the EFL Cup Semi-Final 1st leg on Wednesday evening...

Chelsea v ArsenalWednesday January 14, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Historic violence

Generally when Chelsea play Arsenal there are cards, and lots of them. When the two met at Stamford Bridge at the end of December, late on Sunday afternoon under the lights, there were eight cards, including a red. Arsenal picked up six of them, which is 21% of their overall Premier League total this season and they've played 21 games!

Since the beginning of the 2022/23 season there has been 39 cards in just seven meetings between these two at an average of 5.57 per-game! They are split relatively evenly with Chelsea collecting 21 of these cards and Arsenal 17. The line here is set at 4.5 with Overs priced at 1/1 which ordinarily would be a bet in the Premier League but in the League Cup the number of cards seen is generally lower normally due to player rotation and decreased motivation. And this is only the first leg, so there is the potential for cageyness. However, it is a semi-final, it is a London derby and it is new boss Liam Rosensior's first test against Premier League opposition, so I'm happy to chance some card bets at bigger prices.

Repeat offenders

When you get a rivalry or match-up that tends to breed cards, often you get a few players that are repeat offenders and there's a standout candidate for both sides. In the previous seven meetings I referenced before, Chelsea's Marc Cucurella has been booked a whopping four times and Arsenal's Ben White has also been carded a whopping four times.

For Cucurella, against no other team in his career has he been carded more times, with him also having been booked four times against both Wolves and Osasuna. Overall against Arsenal, his record stands at four yellows in eight games, four in six Chelsea games. For White, Chelsea is the side he's received the most cautions against in his career, with five yellows and one red in just eight games. Since he joined Arsenal, like Cucurella, it's also four in six games. Cucurella will likely be up against Bukayo Saka who's by far Arsenal's most fouled player at 1.8 times per-game and White will likely face a combination of the aforementioned Cucurella and Neto/Garnacho who are being fouled a combined 2.3 times per-game at Stamford Bridge this season.

A referee who rules by the rules

The referee appointment looks a good one in Simon Hooper who is averaging the third most cards per-game in the Premier League of any official to take charge of 10+ games at 4.42. He's taken charge of both Chelsea and Arsenal already this season and dished out four cards to both, including a red for Chelsea, and in the FA Cup at the weekend he produced four yellows and one red between Man Utd and Brighton. Last season he took charge at this stage as well when he officiated Newcastle versus Arsenal and produced five cards on that occasion too. Hooper has booked both Cucurella and White's replacement in Jurrien Timber this season, so if the same was to happen here, we would still win with Betfair's Safe Sub. Cucurella is perhaps too short a single to back at 2/1, so let's back Ben White at 7/2 as well as the double at 13/1.

Now read our Opta stats preview of Chelsea v Arsenal

Recommended bets

Back Ben White to be shown a card at 7/2

Back Ben White and Marc Cucurella to be shown a card at 13/1

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