Chelsea v Newcastle: Liam Rosenior's hot attack can blow Toon away | OneFootball

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Blues value to strengthen Champions League credentials

The race for Champions League places is heating up as Chelsea host Newcastle in a pivotal Premier League showdown. With little separating the chasing pack, three points here could prove massive for Chelsea in shaping who secures a coveted top-four/five finish.

The market on the Betfair Exchange leans toward the hosts, with Chelsea trading around 1.88 to get the job done at Stamford Bridge, while Newcastle are 4.1 to spring the upset. At 8/11 on the Betfair Sportsbook Chelsea will be on plenty of betslips this weekend whether as a single, part of an ACCA or in bet builders for this game - don't forget it's another weekend for Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on football ACCAs or bet builders.

Both sides come into this clash off the back of demanding midweek outings and with their Champions League last-16 second legs looming next week. That kind of scheduling can muddy the waters for bettors with squad rotation, managed minutes and a touch of mental preservation often creep into the equation.

English Premier League: Chelsea v Newcastle (Match Odds)

Saturday 14 March, 5.30pm

The data is really strong behind Chelsea under Liam Rosenior though - something which has been clearly seen in the market. There were clearly big moves from smart money for Chelsea in midweek against PSG, who drifted out from 1.7 to 1.95 in the qualification market.

That strength stems from Chelsea's process in their eight Premier League games under the new manager. They lead the way for expected goals in that time in the league at 2.4 per 90 and their xG supremacy (expected goals for, minus expected goals against) is at +1.2 per game. A really impressive figure, one you'd usually associate with teams going for the title.

Of course the sample size is too small to be making any long-term sweeping statements about Chelsea but make no mistake, Rosenior has made a very smart start to life in west London.

The eye test does back up the numbers in terms of their attacking process, too. There was a spark and threat about them in their 5-2 defeat in Paris whilst their performance in their victory over Aston Villa a couple of weeks ago, to my eyes, was one of the most devastating attacking performances of the season.

Homesick Toon terrible on their travels

Meanwhile, Newcastle's away form remains a big worry.

They've only taken 13 points from their 14 away days in the Premier League this season - only three teams have posted fewer points. Bruno Guimaraes is still missing and there has to be a chance of Eddie Howe prioritising Wednesday's return leg in Barcelona with the scores locked at 1-1.

The strength of Chelsea's attacking process added to Newcastle potentially having more of an eye on Wednesday night, means there's a case to be made for backing the home team at the current odds.

Player prop play: Neto fouls worth backing against Hall

Pedro Neto could be a sneaky foul angle here given he's likely to spend plenty of time trying to slow down the progressive running of Lewis Hall. Since December, Hall has been drawing 2.2 fouls per 90 minutes, which immediately puts opposing wide players into uncomfortable territory.

Neto's broader career numbers in the fouls column are nothing extraordinary, but that's not the key variable in a match-up like this. The foul-drawer is often the dominant factor in these duels, and Hall's willingness to drive forward and attack space tends to force players into clumsy challenges.

Recent data adds a little encouragement, too. Neto has committed five fouls across his last five games, clearing the two-or-more line twice, including the fiery night against Arsenal where he eventually saw red.

With Hall's running power likely to ask repeated questions down that flank, the 1+ foul line at 5/6 looks a solid starting point, while 2+ fouls at 9/2 carries the kind of price that makes this match-up angle worth chancing.