Concacaf Gold Cup Quarterfinals Predictions: USMNT, Canada, Mexico | OneFootball

The 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup Group stage has wrapped up, and half of the teams that started the tournament are now looking on to the quarterfinals and knockout stages.

While the current “Big Four” of Concacaf nations advance, with the U.S. men’s national team, Canada, Mexico and Panama, three other nations will be looking to impress the region in the quarterfinals, while guests Saudi Arabia seek a title of their own.

The quarterfinal matchups run with two matches on each of Saturday and Sunday, with spots in Wednesday’s semi final showdowns up for grabs.

Here are Sports Illusrtated’s previews and predictions on each matchup.

USMNT vs. Costa Rica

PSV's Malik Tillman has been the USMNT's top performer through the group stage. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Despite concerns about missing superstars and poor form heading into the Gold Cup, the U.S. men’s national team put together a perfect group stage, beating Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago and Haiti to earn nine points, while outscoring opponents 8–1.

Yet, they could be due for a scare when they come up against Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, especially given their relatively close 1–0 win over Saudi Arabia.

Against Los Ticos, the USMNT will have to handle striker Manfred Ugalde, who scored three goals in the group stage. They'll also have to find a way past veteran goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who, despite no longer playing at Real Madrid, continues to star at 38 years old with Argentine side Newell’s Old Boys.

Outside of Ugalde and Navas, Costa Rica will look to threaten the MLS-heavy Americans with an MLS talent of their own in New York City FC’s Alonso Martinez, who scored once in the group stage and has eight goals in 16 MLS games this season.

Head coach Mauricio Pochettino will also have significant talent and form available to him, especially with Crystal Palace FC center back Chris Richards and midfielders Malik Tillman and Sebastian Berhalter.

Expect this contest to be heated, and likely decided by a slim margin, but for the USMNT to prevail.

Prediction: USMNT 2–1 Costa Rica

Canada vs. Guatemala

Hajduk Split midfielder Niko Sigur has been the breakout star of the tournament for Canada. / Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

The Canadian men’s national team had a slight slip in their second match against Curaçao with a 1–1 draw after opening the Gold Cup with a 6–0 win over Honduras, but turned things right with a relatively straightforward 2–0 victory over El Salvador in the finale.

Having secured seven points and outscoring opponents 9–1, Les Rouges enter the quarterfinals brimming with confidence and depth, especially with head coach Jesse Marsch back on the touchline after serving a two-match suspension.

While Canada have rotated their starting lineup in each match so far, the game against El Salvador likely offered some clarity on the best eleven, and which players can thrive in a physical, stop-start affair; something star striker Jonathan David described as “typical Concacaf.”

Expect Marsch to roll out a backline of Alistair Johnston, Luc de Fougerolles, Derek Cornelius and Richie Laryea on Sunday. He'll turn to Jonathan David up top alongside Promise David, and a midfield pivot of Nathan Saliba and Matheiu Choiniére.

Meanwhile, Guatemala will look to former MLS star Rubio Rubin up top, and D.C. United right back Aaron Herrera, in what will be a challenging matchup, given that they will miss Columbus Crew SC backup goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen.

Finding a result in what is bound to be another physical matchup won’t be easy, but the CanMNT are determined and confident as they look to win their first Gold Cup since 2000.

Prediction: Canada 3–1 Guatemala

Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia

Center back Cesar Montes has scored three goals in as many games for El Tri at the 2025 Gold Cup. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Mexico might not have been able to end their group stage with a victory against Costa Rica, but they have still looked like one of the best teams in the tournament, and the favorite to lift the trophy at NRG Stadium in Houston on July 6.

While Edson Álvarez has led the team from midfield so far this tournament, El Tri have gotten contributions across the roster with center back Cesar Montes having a team-high three goals. The strike partnership of Raul Jiménez and Santiago Giménez are performing well too despite combining for just one goal.

Still, it won’t be an easy match against Saudi Arabia, after the guest nation held the USMNT to a 1–0 game, and only conceded two goals in three group stage games. At the same time, head coach Herve Renard knows how to pull off an upset, having coached the Saudis to a win over Argentina at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

The standards are high for Mexico after winning the Concacaf Nations League in dominant fashion in March, and head coach Javier Aguirre’s team will want nothing less than a convincing win against the guests.

Prediction: Mexico 3–0 Saudi Arabia

Panama vs. Honduras

Ismael Diaz leads the Golden Boot race at the Gold Cup this summer. / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Ranked 33rd in FIFA, Panamanian soccer is at one of its highest points ever, and Los Canaleros will be dreaming of a Cinderella run to the Gold Cup final, after making the Concacaf Nations League final earlier in the year.

Powered by the tournament’s leading scorer, Ismael Diaz’s five goals, Panama led the tournament in scoring, having hit the back of the net 10 times in wins against Guadeloupe, Guatemala and Jamaica through the group stage.

Outside of Diaz, Tomas Rodriguez has also scored in each match, and Marseille center back Amir Murrilo has put in standout performances in front of goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera.

Yet, they come up against a physical and frustrating Honduras. Led by striker Romell Quioto, Honduras rebounded well with wins over El Salvador and Curacao in the group stage, after a 6–0 loss to Canada to open the tournament and will pose a significant challenge.

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