Confidence Ranking: Which teams could advance from Game 3? | OneFootball

By J. Sam Jones

If you’re looking for an answer to “who should be feeling good heading into Game 3???”, the answer is absolutely no one.

This is going to be an exercise in stress management for all 10 teams involved. Take some time to look up box breathing and the positive effects of petting an imaginary cat.

Still, some teams and their fans should feel slightly better than others as the Round One Best-of-3 Series comes to a close this weekend. Starting with…

1. San Diego FC

Look, sometimes you play a team three matches in a row, bulldoze them the first two times, and get unlucky in the third game.

After losing 4-0 on Decision Day and 2-1 in Game 1, the Portland Timbers finally flipped the game state in their favor against San Diego in Game 2. And even after going up 1-0, they needed a 98th-minute goal from a player who had never put a shot on target before to send things to penalties.

The odds of Portland pulling off the same trick twice aren’t zero, but they aren’t decent either. San Diego have been the significantly better team for the vast majority of this three-game run. At home, they should be fine. Probably. Maybe. What could go wrong, right?

2. Charlotte FC

Charlotte are only this high on the list because they’re at home and because there isn’t a clear difference in quality between them and New York City FC. These two sides are evenly matched and neither will be embarrassed at going out at the hands of the other. You’re basically looking at a coin flip.

But there's a chance Charlotte could go three games without scoring a goal. Their issues in attack are limiting their ceiling.

3. Columbus Crew

The Crew are on the road, but they’re coming off an all-timer of a home performance in Hell is Real. They took 19 shots in their 4-0 win over FC Cincinnati. Conversely, Cincy had just one “shot.” Final xG tally? 3.06 to 0.01.

Game state and a red card from Yuya Kubo in the 38th minute definitely impacted things, but the Crew were cruising before that. They were at their Wilfried Nancy-est best for the first time in a long while in their biggest match of the year. That bodes very well for Game 3.

Even if they don’t win, this isn’t the Eastern Conference Final. They still have that memorable 2023 match to hold over Cincy’s head. If they pull it off, well… add it to the list. Despite a down year, they’ll have had the better of their second-seeded rival.

4. New York City Football Club

NYCFC were a penalty shootout away from advancing last weekend. They’ve kept clean sheets in both games against Charlotte. They’d be far higher here if they weren’t on the road for Game 3.

5. Seattle Sounders FC

Seattle have been the much better side across two games. Minnesota fans will argue that they didn’t feel out of control in Game 1, and nothing felt all that atypical for their game model. But, man, Seattle created 2.1 xG and four big chances. They weren’t banging their heads against the wall.

So maybe it shouldn’t have been a surprise that Game 2 ended with the Sounders easing to a 4-2 thumping. The Sounders out-created Minnesota by nearly a goal's worth of xG and, most importantly, found the back of the net four times. They haven’t been bothered by the Loons’ approach so far. There’s little reason to think that will change in Game 3.

6. Minnesota United FC

See above.

Minnesota have been off the pace so far. But they’re heading back home, can change the game state in an instant with a long throw-in or a set piece, and have the Goalkeeper of the Year, Dayne St. Clair.

There’s a clear path to a win. The Loons just have to take it.

7. Portland Timbers

The Timbers won’t be feeling super optimistic, but there's absolutely a sense that they can make something special happen. They should be flying high after Gage Guerra’s Game 2 heroics. A moment like that can be all it takes to propel a team on an improbable run.

If it doesn’t... they’ve already gone a game further than most expected.

8. Nashville SC

It’s tough to say Nashville should feel “good.” We all know who and what they’re up against. However, they were the better side in Game 2, and they seem set up relatively well to take advantage of Inter Miami’s defensive weaknesses (which definitely still exist).

The Herons aren’t quite as porous as last season, but they’re not exactly an Arsenal-level defense. There will be opportunities for Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge to change the game. If Nashville can survive defensively – they’re pretty good at it even with the shift in game model this year – Miami will start to feel very uncomfortable.

All the pressure is on the team in pink.

9. Inter Miami CF

We’re back here again, huh?

Losing to this Nashville side wouldn’t be anywhere close to what happened last year against Atlanta United, but that doesn’t change how another Round One exit would be a major disappointment. Inter Miami already have a rep during the Lionel Messi era for coming up short in big moments. Stumbling again in pretty much the same way you did last season would be rough, to put it lightly.

No team faces as much pressure as Inter Miami. And no team lives on a knife’s edge like Inter Miami. That’s a dangerous combination.

10. FC Cincinnati

There are some deep wounds from the 2023 Eastern Conference Final, and this series is doing its best to keep them open and fresh. With a chance to put the Crew away for good in Game 2, Cincy managed exactly one more shot than me and you. They got boatraced by their biggest rival and may have even woken up a team that had been sleepwalking for a while now.

Like Inter Miami, the full nightmare scenario of watching another team celebrate on your field is very much in play here. Even worse, they’ll have to hear about it from Crew fans until they flip the narrative entirely.

On top of all that, Cincy will have gone another year with great regular-season results and no MLS Cup. Only LAFC have earned more points since the start of 2022. Other than a Supporters’ Shield win in 2023, FCC don’t have much to show for it. Game 3 is going to be all dread, all the time.

Well, all of the Game 3s will be really. But Cincy will be feeling it more than most.