Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Brighton 1 Newcastle 1 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the four Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

West Ham 1.15 v Spurs 0.85 (1-1)

Brighton 0.69 v Newcastle United 1.64 (1-1)

Brentford 3.59 v Man U 1.13 (4-3)

Chelsea 3.52 v Liverpool 1.43 (3-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Both Brentford and Chelsea very dominant with their Expected Goals stats compared to Man U and Liverpool respectively.

Man U very lucky to lose by only a one goal margin, with Brentford creating far more and better chances than the visitors. As for Chelsea, they were given a massive helping hand as Arne Slot put his reserves out, resting six first choice outfield players who had secured the title against Tottenham the previous weekend.

West Ham and Spurs playing out a tight 1-1 draw, their Expected Goals stats very similar (1.15 v 0.85).

As for Newcastle United, they may have needed a late equaliser, but when you see their superiority on the Expected Goals stat (1.64 compared to 0.69 for Brighton), quite clearly United creating more and better chances and NUFC should have won this.

If you look below at the other key stats, these absolutely back up what the Expected Goals stats point to.

Newcastle with more possession (54% v 46%) than Brighton, more shots (13 v 5), more shots on target (5 v 2), more corners (4 v 1) and more touches in the opposition box (32 v 17).

Brighton 1 Newcastle 1 – Sunday 4 May 2025 2pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 89 pen

Brighton

Minteh 28

Possession was Newcastle 54% Brighton 46%

Total shots were Newcastle 13 Ipswich 5

Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Brighton 2

Corners were Newcastle 4 Brighton 1

Touches in the box Newcastle 32 Brighton 17

Newcastle team v Brighton:

Pope, Trippier (Krafth 97), Schar (Botman 97), Burn, Livramento, Willock (Wilson 74), Tonali, Bruno, Barnes, Isak, Murphy (Gordon 56)

Unused subs:

Dubravka, Osula, Longstaff, Miley, Neave

(Brighton 1 Newcastle 1 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)