Five key reasons to believe 2026 will be the year Arsenal finally win the Premier League | OneFootball

A 4-1 thumping of the in-form Aston Villa has further solidified Arsenal’s title hopes and there is a lot of evidence to suggest this could finally be the year Mikel Arteta’s men break their drought.

Ahead of Manchester City’s game on New Year’s Day, Arsenal lead the league by five points.

Here are five reasons why they could go all the way this year.

5. They are statistically the best team in the league

Anti xG enthusiasts had a new hero in Aston Villa recently. By numbers, Villa are the seventh lowest in terms of xG created and have scored 30 goals from their 21.8 expected ones. Similarly, they have allowed an xGA of 27.9 and yet have actually only let 23 in.

Numbers then suggested that their winning streak, while incredibly impressive, was not sustainable.

That same logic can be applied then to Arsenal who top the league for both xG and xGA.

A Norwegian robot designed to score goals means Arsenal don’t actually top the goalscoring charts (37 to City’s 43) but they are the only team who really have a balance on creating chances but preventing them this season.

Case in point is Manchester United, who are third in the xG standings. Swap it to xGA, and Ruben Amorim’s team are 10th.

Newcastle are the third-best team according to xGA but are only the ninth-best at creating goals.

It is only Manchester City that can get close to Arsenal but even then, there is a sizeable gap when it comes to defending with Arsenal conceding 13.3 xG while City are up at 19.4.

Numbers do tend to be right in the end and they certainly suggest Arsenal are the best team in the league.

4. They have the best midfielder in the league

With Rodri being an exception, central midfielders tend not to get the recognition they deserve when it comes to end-of-season awards, but if Arsenal do go on to win the title this year, there is one more who will be owed more kudos than most.

In the 2003-04 season – the last time Arsenal won the Premier League – their midfield consisted of the hardman Patrick Vieira, the technical flair of Robert Pires and the tireless running of Freddie Ljungberg and yet Declan Rice is like all three rolled into one.

He is easily the best midfielder in the league, maybe even the world. Only Rayan Cherki has created more chances in the league this season. Rice is in the top 5% for passes completed with an accuracy of almost 90%. He has had 1,435 touches, putting him in the top 3% despite missing an entire match. He is third in the total number of ball carries this year, behind only Elliot Anderson and Jan Paul van Hecke.

The signing of Martin Zubimendi has allowed Rice to move from the 6 to his more preferred No.8. But even then, it is slightly different to the norm, with the player starting deeper and using his physical attributes to join in attacks.

Against Aston Villa, it showed how vulnerable Arsenal can look when Rice is absent, as Amadou Onana enjoyed a lot of space to charge into. On a different day and with a more clinical Ollie Watkins, Villa could well have taken the lead.

Arteta will hope Rice is out for just a short period, as he will need his most complete midfielder fit for this tricky January period.

3. Gabriel Jesus

If there was one area Arsenal look weak in this season, it has been at striker.

The £63.5m signing of Viktor Gyokeres was believed to be the final piece of Arteta’s jigsaw – an opportunity to stop playing makeshift midfielders in the number 9 spot and yet, it hasn’t panned out.

An expensive signing not hitting the ground running would not be a new phenomenon but it is more than just a lack of goals with Gyokeres. He looks a heavy runner, one without a touch that traps the ball like your boot is made of super glue. His finishing, evident against Villa, has left a lot to be desired.

The good news is Arteta may not be forced to rely on the Swede anymore. The forward line has been hit particularly hard by injuries with Kai Havertz out since August but Gabriel Jesus is now returning following a cruciate ligament tear.

Against Crystal Palace in the League Cup and Villa, Jesus showed a clinical side that Gyokeres has lacked and that earned him praise from the likes of Jamie Carragher who said it was “a fact” that Jesus is “a better player than Gyokeres.”

Having Jesus as another option means Arteta does not have to put too much faith in a player who has yet to show he can do it in the Premier League.

2. Because Uncle Jeff says so

With thanks to Uncle Jeff’s Coefficient which tracks a team’s performance by comparing their points from current season fixtures against the exact same fixtures from the previous season, we can have a rough guess of where Arsenal might end up this year.

At this point last year, Arsenal were on 39 points compared to their 45 this term and went on to end the year with 74 points.

In theory, Arsenal should end the year on 86 points which is the exact same tally that Manchester City are predicted to finish on.

City are currently 15 points ahead of where they were last year following their dramatic collapse this time 12 months ago but while their performances have not been overly convincing, a similar drop off has so far looked unlikely.

The Premier League could well then come down to margins as small as goal difference and the Gunners’ visit to the Etihad in mid-April may well be the title decider.

1. They finally have the squad depth

If you are one of the few people who managed to miss the statistic that Arsenal have failed to win the league after topping it at Christmas on four occasions, that fact has sent a cold shiver down one or two Gunners supporting spines.

But before they panic too much, perhaps the defining difference between this year and previous attempts is the undeniably strong squad depth Arsenal enjoy.

In goal, David Raya has yet to miss a game but Kepa Arrizabalaga is not a bad alternative. Ben White, Jurrien Timber, Riccardo Calafiori and Myles Lewis-Skelly are all good full-back options. Arsenal’s central defence strength was tested recently when Gabriel and William Saliba were ruled out but Christian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie picked up the pieces.

In midfield, Martin Odegaard, Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice are complemented by Christian Norgaard, Mikel Merino and Eberechi Eze. Their forward line can be made up of any of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyokeres, Leandro Trossard, Noni Madueke, Ethan Nwaneri or Kai Havertz.

Of those, only Havertz, Mosquera, White and Max Dowman are currently out with injuries.

It is why this year feels different and the club are not one Saka injury away from a dramatic loss of form.