GdS: ‘An obstacle course’ – Milan fall 8pts behind fourth but Conceicao will not give up | OneFootball

Sergio Conceiçao has no intention of giving up because he believes in the pursuit of fourth place and will do everything to get there, yet the team keep letting him down.

According to La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below), Conceicao re-iterated his belief that Milan can get top four on Saturday evening to the directors at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. It was the usual discussions between the coach, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Giorgio Furlani and Geoffrey Moncada after a game, but this time after a damaging defeat.

The Portuguese is going through perhaps the most complicated moment of his coaching career, but he doesn’t show the slightest sign of slowing down. He’s angry, but not resigned, stating: “Our season is not over and we are here to get fourth place. We will be competitive until the end.”

For Conceiçao’s beliefs to transform into reality, however, it is necessary to avoid the ups and downs that the Rossoneri have alternated practically since August. Over the course of four days, from Thursday to Sunday, many things will be clearer because games against Bologna and Lazio await.

The data

Conceiçao has so far obtained 14 points in eight matches in Serie A and has therefore averaged 1.75 points per game. It is better than Fonseca (1.59), but not enough to consider his record satisfactory.

To finish behind Inter, Napoli and Atalanta in fourth it will be necessary to exceed 70 points. Thus, 9-10 wins could be needed in the 13 matches remaining on the calendar, including the game in hand against Bologna on Thursday.

Will it be easy? Far from it, because the Rossoneri have won just 11 of their 25 games so far, a win rate of just 40.4%. From here on, a victory rate of around 70% will be needed, at 2.3 per game.

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The others and the past

Could the other teams’ struggles lower the quota necessary for entry into the Champions League? This weekend Lazio, Bologna and Fiorentina slowed down, Juventus (now at +8) did not.

From 2018 onwards, i.e. since the UEFA reform guaranteed Italy four teams in the Champions League, fourth place has often had to exceed 70 points to reach the finish line.

For example, it happened to Inter in 2017-18 (72 plus the head-to-head in favour of Lazio), to Lazio in 2019-20 (78) and to Juve both in 2020-21 (78) and in 2021-22 (70).

The Bianconeri finished fourth on 72 in 2022-23, but the 10-point penalty changed the ranking. Fourth place was obtained with 69 points instead for Inter 2018-19 and for Atalanta last season, when fifth-placed Bologna also entered the Champions League.

Concentration and form

From next week, Conceiçao will be able to work every day at Milanello. Then, we will start to see answers to some of the doubts that currently surround the coach.

Will he be able to improve the form of some players who on a physical level seem ‘burdened’ compared to the past? Will he be able to eliminate the errors he believes are caused by a lack of concentration? Only in this way can he hope for a comeback.

His Italian experience, after less than two months, is already at a crossroads and his confirmation depends on his entry into the Champions League. The time for mistakes is over: Sergio knows this too.