How many more points do Arsenal need to win the Premier League title? | OneFootball

Arsenal currently boast a six-point lead at the top of the Premier League table, but how many points will it take them to clinch the title?

Given that Manchester City have drawn their last three matches and Aston Villa have only won one of their last three, Mikel Arteta’s side now have some breathing space at the top of the table.

There’s no denying that they are the title favourites right now, but how many points will it take them to win the league?

Based on their current points per game trajectory of 2.33, they are projected to win the league with 89 points. However, there’s a good chance that it could require even fewer points to win it.

As things stand Man City and Aston Villa are averaging 2.05 points per game and are both projected to end the season with 78 points.

If both teams continue to average that form between now and the end of the season, Arsenal would only need to accumulate 30 points in their final 17 matches to win the league with 79 points.

That’s the equivalent of 1.76 points per game between now and the end of the season, the sort of form that Liverpool have been averaging in 2025-26.

In all likelihood, at least one of Aston Villa and Manchester City will improve in the second half of the season, meaning that it should take more than 79 points to win the league.

However, this year certainly won’t be one of those vintage title races where the top two both finish with 90+ points.

Indeed, during the thrilling 2018-19 title race, where Man City finished with 98 points and Liverpool with 97, both teams had already racked up 50+ points by this stage of the season.

Since the start of November, Man City have been averaging 2.25 points per game. If they maintain that between now and the end of the season, they’ll finish the campaign with 82 points.

Unless they have a serious surge from January onwards, Pep Guardiola’s side are likely to finish the season with 80-85 points.

This means that Arsenal will likely need another 37 points from their remaining 17 matches, which would get them to 86 points.

Therefore, if they are able to average around 2.18 points per game for the remainder of the campaign, that should be enough to crown them champions.

Interestingly, prior to this season, there have only been nine instances of a Premier League club leading the table by six or more points at this stage of the season. Of those nine seasons, the team leading by six or more points has won the league on six occasions.

With that in mind, it’s certainly not a guarantee that Arsenal will win the title, but that data is on their side.

Indeed, Opta think that Arsenal have a 84.8% chance of winning the league this season, which will surely give their fans some confidence going into the second half of the campaign.