🇮🇹 Italy, all the scenarios to reach the World Cup or the play-offs 🏆 | OneFootball

The comeback victory of 5-4 against Israel has given Italy's campaign towards the 2026 World Cup a breath of fresh air: a crucial success, but not yet decisive. The situation in the group remains complex with Norway, Israel, and Italy still competing for the top two positions.

With four matches still to play for the Azzurri, anything is possible: let's look at the possible scenarios to finish first, second with a margin, or go to the playoffs in 2nd place despite ending up tied on points with Israel.

How to reach 2nd place

Italy and Israel are tied at 9 points, but Italy has one less game and a favorable goal difference (+5 against +4). The next head-to-head - scheduled for October 14th - will likely be decisive in establishing the final hierarchy between the two teams.

To secure second place, Italy must:

With this combination, Italy would be unreachable for Israel, securing at least second place with one matchday to spare.

How to reach 1st place

The first place, which directly qualifies for the World Cup, remains theoretically possible, but the margin for error is practically zero.

Norway is currently first with 12 points, but has already played one more game than the Azzurri. Haaland's team will face Moldova on September 9th, a match where a large victory is expected. In that case, they would rise to 15 points, maintaining at least a +6 over Italy but with one more match played.

To finish at the top of the group, Italy must do one of these two things:

Currently, however, Norway is at +11 in goal difference, while Italy is at +5. With Norway's 5-0 win in the first leg against Moldova (while Italy only won 2-0), the comparison is unbalanced.

Therefore, it is necessary to:

If tied on points with Israel

If Italy and Israel finish the group tied on points, the goal difference will be the first criterion to determine who will have the better position. At the moment, Italy has a slight advantage.

After the victory in the head-to-head (5-4), Italy has brought its goal difference to +5, while Israel is stuck at +4. A minimal margin, but potentially decisive.

Israel still has three games to play, so it will be crucial for Italy to:

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

📸 ATTILA KISBENEDEK - AFP or licensors