Italy & Brazil reflect disparity between Europe and South America in World Cup qualifying | OneFootball

Italy may once again have to participate in a play-off match as they seek to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

The Azzurri currently sit in 2nd place in Group I, six points behind group leaders Norway, albeit with a game in hand.

Only the top team in each group qualifies automatically and Norway’s resounding 11-1 win over Moldova means they have a considerable goal difference advantage.

Italy must hope that Norway drop points before the two teams meet in November, otherwise it will once again be play-off drama for the Azzurri.

Moise Kean celebrates scoring for Italy against Israel in the World Cup qualifier (@azzurri)

However, as Italy look at potentially facing a play-off contest, despite losing just once in their four games so far, we can see the disparity between how things work in Europe, and how they work in South America, where Brazil have qualified automatically for next year’s tournament despite winning just eight and losing six of their 18 matches.

Europe is tougher to qualify as Italy prepare for play-offs

As revealed by Italian journalist Giovanni Capuano on X, the system for World Cup qualification could use some improvement.

In the South American CONMEBOL qualifying, six of the ten teams qualify automatically, with one having to participate in the play-offs.

Capuano calculated that for a South American side to qualify for the World Cup, it can be done with as little as 1.16 points per game. Meanwhile, a European team with that record would not even be close to a play-off place, let alone automatic qualification.

Italy starting XI against Israel in the 2026 World Cup qualifier (@azzurri)

Meanwhile, the journalist also notes that 8 of the top 10 teams in the FIFA World Rankings are from Europe, with 15 in the top 30.

Therefore, whilst Italy may receive criticism and rightly so if the nation fails to qualify for a major tournament, it is not so easy for European teams to book their place in the finals, especially compared to how easy it can be for other big nations around the world.