Italy v Germany: Foul your way to profit in Nations League quarter final | OneFootball

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Alessandro Bastoni: Oft-fouled Italy defender

After two winners in the past three days, our football props column is targeting a 13/5 Bet Builder when Italy host Germany in the Nations League quarter-finals on Thursday...

Italy v GermanyThursday 20 March, 19:45Prime Video pay-per-view

We got through the first three days of the international break with two winners - not bad when getting involved with teams I admittedly knew little about!

Now, we're getting down to the proper business and this Nations League quarter-final first leg promises much.

Germany were the top scorers in the group phase of League A, netting 18 goals as they topped a pool containing the Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Italy were also free-scoring as they finished second to France - of the quarter-finalists, only the Germans managed to beat their tally of 13 goals. The Italians also shipped eight - the most of the remaining nations.

The problem is both teams have injury issues heading into this one.

Germany have lost Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz and Marc-Andre ter Stegen, while Serie A's top scorer Mateo Retegui and the ever-reliable Federico Dimarco are missing for the hosts.

Throw in the two-legged nature of the tie and I have doubts about going down the goals route.

Leg 1: Alessandro Bastoni to be fouled 1+ time

Instead, I'm keen on fouls and will make good use of some of the additional markets we're now getting following that barren start to the week.

If you think back to last summer and the Euros, Germany's aggressive approach under Julian Nagelsmann came to the fore. Their fouls numbers drifted back a little in the group stage of this competition in the autumn but they still averaged 11 per game and have regularly hit double figures on this front during the young manager's reign.

Unsurprisingly, the German players are pretty short to commit fouls but we can go to the other side of the ball and back Italy players to draw fouls at better prices.

Let's start with Alessandro Bastoni. He's been fouled in 12 of his last 15 internationals and so 1/2 about another here looks good.

It will look even better if, as touted, Tim Kleindienst starts. The Germans have long liked a target man at centre forward and the Monchengladbach striker is a giant who is committing close above 2.5 fouls per game for his club this season.

Leg 2: Giovanni Di Lorenzo to be fouled 1+ time

I also like Giovanni Di Lorenzo to be fouled 1+ time. That's occurred in 10 of his last 11 Italy games - and 18 of his last 23 for Napoli - but again we can still get a nice price, this time 4/7.

He's moved into the back three of late, playing on the right-hand side, but it hasn't halted his foul-drawing ability and also pushes him closer to Germany's centre forward.

To complete our fouls Bet Builder, let's add Nicolo Barella to commit 1+ foul.

When fit, the Inter Milan star has been a staple of the Italy midfield for a while so he looks a likely starter.

Barella has landed the 1+ foul bet in five of his last six internationals and here he'll be playing around the oft-fouled Robert Andrich in what should be a competitive midfield battle.

The three legs combine to form a 13/5 shot and while the choice of referee, Francois Letexier, could have been better for fouls backers, that's a price still worth taking.

More Nations League QF tips: Read Dan Fitch's preview!

Recommended bets

Back Alessandro Bastoni & Giovanni Di Lorenzo to be fouled 1+ time each and Nicolo Barella to commit 1+ foul @ around 13/5

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 246pts Returned: 270.94pts 2024/25 P/L: +24.94pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts