Jones Knows Notebook: Why Wolves' expected improvement makes Burnley a bet to finish bottom | OneFootball

The relegation market in the Premier League isn't likely to see much action with Wolves and Burnley heavily odds-on at 1.06 for the drop.

However, the "finish bottom" market with the Betfair Exchange has reeled me in - it's not a market with many eyes on but one where the price about Burnley being the team to prop up the Premier League at 3.65 rates as a juicy value long-term play to back.

Markets have a habit of locking onto the here and now, often forgetting how quickly narratives can flip. And there is plenty of time left in this Premier League season for a flip as we have 17 games still to play.

That's 51 points up for grabs.

Wolves sit six points behind Burnley and the market is painting them as the weakest side in the Premier League.

That's a fair argument over what we've seen so far.

The weekend win over West Ham was their first of the season and ended a 22-game winless run in the league. But context matters here and the gap between them and Burnley isn't nearly as decisive as the market suggests, especially with the strong prospect of belief and confidence returning to a Wolves side who have been on the floor for most of the season.

With 17 games still to play, a six-point swing is modest. Two results is all it takes. One good month is all that is required, especially when one side shows signs of potential upgrade and structural improvement while another remains stuck in neutral.

It's 11 games without a win for Burnley now and just two points taken from a possible 33. Wolves are on the upgrade.

Burnley the basement boys?

Despite not being rooted to the foot of the table as it stands, Burnley's underlying profile remains deeply concerning and has been for the majority of the season. All the key metrics have them as the worst team in the Premier League. They've been flashing warning signs all season.

Their expected goals against numbers show that Burnley are conceding 2.00 xG per 90, the worst figure in the division - that's a team consistently allowing opponents high-quality chances in dangerous areas. Burnley also sit bottom of the league for xG supremacy, posting a damaging -1.07 per 90. In simple terms, they're being comprehensively outplayed almost every week.

Shot volume reinforces the same message. Burnley face more shots than any other Premier League team and concede more big chances than anyone else.

Markets and punter assessment often give struggling teams credit for 'being in games' or 'showing fight' but underlying metrics care little for narrative. They measure repeatable actions and Burnley's actions are pointing firmly in one direction.

Wolves on the updgrade

New managers don't always need fireworks to make an impact. Sometimes the most important changes are the quiet ones, the kind that don't immediately dominate highlights but slowly reshape a team's trajectory. That appears to be exactly what's happening at Wolves under Rob Edwards.

Defensively, Wolves look transformed.

Across their last five Premier League matches, Wolves have posted an expected goals against figure of just 1.01 per 90 - it's the second-best defensive record in the league over that sample size. And context elevates it further. This run includes games against Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool - fixtures that usually inflate defensive numbers rather than suppress them.

Opponents are being forced into lower-quality chances, fewer clear looks and more shots from distance - the kind of defensive profile that stabilises results over time.

West Ham found that out on Saturday. They were restricted to scraps in terms of attacking return whilst for the first time this season the Wolves attack found a ruthless streak in the 3-0 win. Similar results may follow in recent weeks.

Markets are often slow to react to these kinds of changes, especially when results don't immediately spike. But defensive improvement is one of the most reliable indicators of future points accumulation.

They can finish the season above Burnley.