Liverpool’s FA Cup Exit to Plymouth: Dan Kennett and Dr Barts Break Down the Stats | OneFootball

Liverpool’s FA Cup Exit: A Statistical Analysis of the 1-0 Loss to Plymouth

Liverpool’s unexpected 1-0 defeat to Plymouth in the FA Cup has sparked a wave of discussion among fans and analysts alike. In the latest Under Pressure podcast from Anfield Index, Dan Kennett and Dr Phil Barter dissected the loss with their signature focus on statistical analysis. Here’s a breakdown of their insights into Liverpool’s disappointing performance and what it means moving forward.

Photo: IMAGO

Full Rotation and Team Selection Decisions

Liverpool’s starting eleven featured Caoimhin Kelleher in goal, with Kostas Tsimikas, Joe Gomez, Jarell Quansah, and James McConnell forming an unfamiliar defensive line. The midfield trio consisted of Wataru Endo, Harvey Elliott, and Dominik Szoboszlai, while the attack boasted Luis Díaz, Diogo Jota, and Ben Doak.

“It was full rotation,” Kennett remarked. “Not a single player who started against Tottenham started this game, apart from Kelleher.” Even the bench was light on experience, with only Darwin Núñez and Curtis Jones offering senior options. Jones, however, didn’t feature due to a minor injury concern.

Dr Phil Barter pointed out the tactical implications of this lineup: “We couldn’t have picked a smaller eleven if we tried,” he said, noting that Plymouth’s physicality, bolstered by their recent signings of tall, dominant players, posed a unique challenge for Liverpool’s makeshift squad.

Impact of Injuries and Tactical Missteps

Joe Gomez’s injury further disrupted Liverpool’s already fragile setup. Dr Phil observed, “Joe being injured caused us to make an early substitution, and I can see why McConnell started there [at right-back] because he can clearly play the ball. But it made the game very easy for Plymouth.”

The tactical imbalance was clear, especially with Liverpool’s right side struggling to progress the ball. “We didn’t function for about 20 minutes,” Kennett noted. “We were trying to force everything down the left.”

Key Statistics and Missed Opportunities

Statistically, the game painted a grim picture for Liverpool. Kennett revealed that Plymouth was more likely to win the game in 10,000 simulations, largely due to the penalty and their superior aerial presence. “1-0 was the most likely result,” he stated, with Plymouth’s win probability at 43%, compared to Liverpool’s 24% and a 31% chance of a draw.

Liverpool’s Expected Goals (xG) told another story of frustration. “We created most of our xG when we were behind,” Kennett said. This late flurry wasn’t enough, as Liverpool failed to capitalise on their few clear chances. James McConnell’s late opportunity came under scrutiny, but as Dr Phil clarified, “He was under heavy pressure when he shot. It’s harsh to call it an open goal miss.”

Photo: IMAGO

Debate Over Squad Depth

One of the podcast’s most debated topics was whether Liverpool’s second string is strong enough. Dr Phil was clear: “I don’t think this was our second eleven. This was a cup side with a couple of first-teamers trying to get minutes.” Kennett echoed this sentiment, adding that integrating two or three of these players into the first team would be fine, but playing an entire rotated squad exposed limitations.

Dr Phil concluded, “When you play all 11 of them in a scratch team away on a bad pitch, why do people expect them to look like they’ve played together?”

Lessons From FA Cup Exit

Liverpool’s FA Cup journey ended prematurely, but as Dan Kennett and Dr Phil Barter highlighted, the defeat wasn’t solely about poor performance. Factors like full squad rotation, injuries, and Plymouth’s physical dominance played significant roles. While the result was disappointing, the statistical analysis suggests that Liverpool’s broader squad strength remains intact, and the loss should be viewed in context.

For more in-depth analysis and future match breakdowns, listen to the Under Pressure podcast on Anfield Index.