MLS Best Bets of Week 11- May 2, 2026 | OneFootball

The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on Spotify with video, below.

Match- Toronto FC host San Jose Earthquakes

Pick- San Jose Team Total U1.5 -108

The San Jose Earthquakes have been clicking on all cylinders on offense, and yet I like them to score less than 2 goals this week against Toronto FC.  While this seems unlikely, consider the absence of Timo Werner for a minute.  

Timo has 4 goals and 5 assists this season.  That means in only 457 minutes of SJ’s 10 matches, he’s responsible for (directly or indirectly) 9 of their 25 goals.  By the numbers, that brings the Quakes, in Werner’s absence,  down about 36% on offensive production.  That brings them closer to RBNY or the LA Galaxy in terms of offensive production. 

Let me be clear, TFC is a mess.  However, these high odds for any away team’s team total unders don’t always make sense.  This is a math play, not a confidence play. 

Match- Sporting KC host Seattle Sounders

Pick- BTTS No +128

This week, two teams with the lowest goals scored face off.  Combined, Sporting KC and Seattle Sounders scored 19 goals in 17 matches.  While Sporting KC has seen a whopping 25 goals against, Seattle has only conceded 4 times.  That is a league low.  

I went back to look at historical data, and saw SKC actually scored 2 goals in each of their last two matches against the Sounders.  However, that included two penalties and an own goal.  Mason Toye, who now plays in the third division in Germany, scored the fourth. 

I want to make it clear that this is an anti-SKC play, but it is also a reflection of Seattle’s 5 shutouts this season, and overall low risk in betting. Even without Yeimar playing the last 5 matches, they conceded only 2 goals during that span.  Against a weaker opponent, I think they have a better than the 44% chance the implied probability on a +128 bet would hold. 

While I don’t think Seattle is getting shut out here, we also need to consider that possibility is non-zero with a BTTS-No bet. 

Match- Atlanta United hosts CF Montreal

Pick- CF Montreal DNB +174

This isn’t a game that will have many eyes, but I do think Atlanta United against CF Montreal has some good odds this week.  Montreal is off of two straight home wins, including a 4-1 beatdown of RBNY and 1-0 win over NYCFC.  This week, I think they can beat a non-NY team.  

CF Montreal have been up and down this season, and as bad as they have been, I don’t think they are completely hopeless.  They are certainly not unable to compete this week in Atlanta. 

My first look at the odds saw Atlanta at -110 and Montreal at +250, with little movement since then.  I just don’t think the sportsbook is very interested in this match, and +250 against Atlanta is a value.  

Match- Philadelphia Union host Nashville SC

Pick- Under 2.5 -118

Nashville SC has had an electric start to 2026, but I think that is about to reach slump territory.  Sam Surridge is week to week with a back injury, while Edvard Tagseth was forced off midweek against Tigres.  They are facing those midweek CCC matches, and think they might be forced to rotate this week.  Nashville, all that being said, still only conceded 6 goals this season, and if they aren’t the ones scoring, I think they can keep the game close by keeping the total low. 

The Philadelphia Union have seen higher total matches, but overall they’ve seen a mixed bag of results.  They have played to totals under 2.5 goals in half of their home matches.  In their last 5 games, they’ve had only one home game, a 0-0 draw against DC United. 

At -118, my model shows a 2.45% advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability of 54.13%.  This seems like a pretty fair play, and I like the chances of Nashville running out the B-Squad, anyway. 

Match- New England Revolution host Charlotte FC

Pick- BTTS & Over 2.5 -106

When the Revs host Charlotte FC this weekend, I like the Revolution and I like goals.  In fact, the Revs have the second highest advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability, with a 5.49% advantage. However, my lingering New England skepticism and favoritism towards Charlotte push me to another play. I like both teams to score and the over on 2.5 goals, combined at -106 odds. 

The Revolution are a perfect 4-0 at home, and 1-1-3 on the road.  They have had an awesome home advantage thus far, although their opponents (Columbus, DC, Montreal, and Cincy) leave the strength of the advantage to be tested. However, they saw a total of 14 goals in those 4 home matches, and saw both teams score twice.  Charlotte is the best offense they’ve faced, so I think they definitely concede this week. 

Charlotte has a similar home/away split as the Revolution, yet opponents have only shut Charlotte out once on the road.  They see BTTS in 4 of 5 matches on the road and each of their last three.  Their last away match they failed to score in was March 1st. They have played to a total of 19 total goals in those 5 matches. 

This one points the way of goals, and with both teams playing midweek, we could see a shootout.  Odds are -106 for a low-risk play. 

Match- San Diego FC host Los Angeles FC

Pick- David Martinez Goal or Assist -110

This week LAFC played Toluca and then will travel to San Diego, all before playing in Toluca next week.  Their coach, Marc dos Santos, was already complaining about the schedule congestion in interviews this week.  I think he’s going to rotate a bunch of players, which could push 20 year old winger David Martinez to an influential role. 

Martinez already has 4 goals this season, including the only goal in Minnesota, where the squad also rotated heavily.  With San Diego FC missing Luca Bombino, the leftback role was filled by Ian Pilcher, who has pretty much been a non-factor this season. 

LAFC can exploit SDFC this week without holding possession or starting a full contingency of stars.  They can sit back, counter, and attack the wings and still get a good result.  If that is the play, young Martinez is your guy.  I will also dabble on his scoring at +200. 

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