Newcastle United v Chelsea: Back Magpies to at least avoid defeat | OneFootball

English Premier League

Bruno Guimaraes has been targeted for physical punishment when facing Chelsea this season

Newcastle and Chelsea are battling for Champions League qualification ahead of their Sunday meeting and Kevin Hatchard can't see the Blues taking maximum points...

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Newcastle v ChelseaSunday 11 May, 12:00

Magpies in position for Champions League return

There will be lots of twists and turns to come this month, but Newcastle United are at least on track to qualify for the Champions League for the second time in three seasons. It does them no harm that rivals Chelsea and Nottingham Forest play each other on the final day of the season, but this weekend's showdown with a Chelsea side that has the same points and goal difference as the Magpies is the club's biggest since the League Cup final.

Newcastle's home form is excellent. They have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games at St James' Park, including the last five. They have scored at least twice in all of those eight victories, and have netted at least three goals in seven of them.

Star striker Alexander Isak continues to be one of the most impressive players in the top division, and only Mo Salah has outscored him in the league this term. Isak has 23 Premier League goals, and has scored in three of his last four matches.

The loss of midfield bruiser Joelinton to injury is a blow, and there are doubts over Kieran Tripper and Fabian Schär. Lewis Hall, Matt Targett and Jamaal Lascelles are out long-term.

Chelsea reach final but real work starts now

Chelsea are having a strange campaign. Manager Enzo Maresca has stressed throughout the season that this is a young group that can't be expected to push for a title, and that doesn't automatically warrant a Champions League place. However, those sentiments are at odds with the fact that owners Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital have spent eye-watering sums on the squad and have recruited some of the best young players in Europe.

There is no doubt that if Chelsea miss out on Champions League qualification, it will be seen as a failure internally and externally. It could affect recruitment, and given the Blues' propensity for sacking coaches (something that the new owners have kept from the Roman Abramovich era), it will leave Maresca on shaky ground. It hasn't gone unnoticed that Liam Rosenior has been doing an excellent job with a young side at Chelsea's sister club Strasbourg.

Another unusual part of the season has been the somewhat awkward trudge through the Conference League. Chelsea have routinely swatted aside clubs with a fraction of their resources, but now in the final they'll face a jump in quality. Real Betis are desperate to win the club's first ever European final, and veteran coach Manuel Pellegrini actually had Maresca as a player at Malaga.

Chelsea have picked up in the league of late, and last weekend's 3-1 win over distracted and listless Liverpool means they have collected 14 points from the last six matches in the top division. Their last Premier League defeat was at Arsenal in mid-March.

Cole Palmer's return to form has been welcome, and it's no coincidence that Nicolas Jackson is back in the team too, as the pair have dovetailed nicely on many occasions. Jackson has scored three goals in his last three games, while Palmer finally ended his long goal drought with a strike against Liverpool.

There's also been a fine run of form for midfield ace Romeo Lavia. He has been beset by injury troubles since joining the Blues, but when he is fit, the Belgian is an outstanding player.

Newcastle can pick up at least a point

Despite the recent form of Palmer, Jackson and Lavia I'm still not convinced by the strength of Chelsea's revival, and people are setting too much store by a win over a weakened Liverpool who had just been celebrating a title win.

Chelsea's comeback win at Fulham recently was their first Premier League away win since early December, and on Sunday lunchtime they are up against one of the best teams in the league.

I'll back Newcastle/Draw Double Chance, Isak to have two or more shots (something he has done in 23 of his 32 league games this term) and Over 3.5 Cards.

When the teams met in the League Cup in October there were six bookings, and in the reverse fixture in the league there were nine cautions. Both sides have combative midfielders (Bruno Guimaraes for Newcastle and Enzo Fernandez for Chelsea are great examples), and they have mobile centre-forwards who are difficult to contain.

That treble gives us a price of 11/10 on the Bet Builder.

It's also worth looking at Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled three times or more at 1/1 on the Sportsbook. In the two games against Chelsea he was fouled five times in the first and three times in the second, and in that second game he only played 28 minutes.

He has been fouled three times or more in 27 of his 53 matches for club and country this season, and Chelsea are in the league's top eight when it comes to fouls committed. Newcastle are third when it comes to fouls drawn in the league this term.

Now read Kev's Serie A tips here

Recommended bets

Back Over 3.5 Cards, Alexander Isak to have 2+ shots and Newcastle/Draw Double Chance @ 11/10

Back Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled 3+ times @ 1/1