Opta updated projections on Newcastle United Champions League chances after Marseille defeat | OneFootball

How will Newcastle United end up in the Champions League this 2025/26 season?

Five matches now played already.

The 2-1 defeat to Barcelona at St James’ Park.

Followed by the 4-0 away win against Union S-G.

Next up a 3-0 victory over Benfica at SJP.

Then at St James’ Park again, an excellent 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao.

Marseille away last night and despite leading 1-0 at the break, Newcastle United ended up losing this one 2-1.

Each of the 36 clubs playing four games away and four at home.

Newcastle United still to face Bayer Leverkusen (H), PSV Eindhoven (A) and PSG (A).

Opta have now done their updated Champions League 2025-26 Projections for Newcastle United and the other 35 clubs, following Tuesday night’s matches.

These are the updated predictions via Opta – 26 November 2025:

So the updated Opta predictions for Newcastle United:

Predicted final league position – 13th.

Predicted number of points after the eight league matches – 12.88 points from a possible 24.

Percentage chance of ending up very top of league stage after the eight games – A 0.02% possibility of doing so.

Percentage chance of ending up in the play-offs – A 81.16% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of top 8 and automatic qualification for last 16 – A 18.27% chance of finishing between 9th and 24th.

Percentage chance of reaching the quarter-finals – A 30.12% chance of getting to the last eight.

Percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals – A 12.75% chance of getting to the last four.

Percentage chance of reaching the final – A 5.19% chance of getting to the final.

Percentage chance of winning the Champions League – A 2.01% chance of winning the whole thing! (Opta rating Newcastle United as the joint eleventh most likely winners…)

Marseille 2 Newcastle 1 – Tuesday 25 November 2025 8pm

Match Stats

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Barnes 6

Marseille:

Aubameyang 46, 50

Possession was Newcastle 43% Marseille 57%

Total shots were Newcastle 20 Marseille 18

Shots on target were Newcastle 9 Marseille 7

Corners were Newcastle 5 Marseille 11

Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 31 Marseille 26

Newcastle team v Marseille:

Pope, Livramento (Hall 60), Thiaw, Schar (Elanga 61), Burn, Willock (Ramsey 72), Bruno, Tonali, Barnes, Gordon (Woltemade 72), Murphy (Miley 60)