Philadelphia's flaw, Orlando's top-five chances & more from Matchday 26 | OneFootball

By Matthew Doyle

We’ve got an Orlando team still missing that last piece, a nine-point week for Charlotte, the ‘Caps making moves and San Diego playing kids.

But we’re going to start with one of the very best teams in the league, who still have a very big question to answer.

In we go:

Maybe You Know

The Union are one of MLS’s most reliably good outfits. They press, they scramble, they run, they compete. They batter you on set pieces, they punish your mistakes. It’s why they are where they are in the standings, and it’s why nobody should be all that surprised if, at the end of the year, they’re the ones hoisting the Supporters’ Shield.

So I’m going to call Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Houston a good road point for Philly. They, like everyone else, had a three-game week to deal with. They were coming off a pair of solid if not exactly spectacular home wins over the Red Bulls and Montréal. They were resting some key players, and trying out some other not-so-key guys, and they were doing so with a trip to Texas to face a good (or good-adjacent, anyway) Dynamo team that has never been easy.

And I think we saw most of the stuff that indicates why the Union are in the lead pack of five teams that’s emerged in the Eastern Conference: their depth, their energy, the ability to disrupt teams with their press and turn that into chances. They also created constant danger on restarts – their goal came off a throw-in, and they were denied a late PK shout when the original call was overturned after a lengthy review.

“For the life of me, I’m not sure, when somebody jumps first, makes a play on the ball unopposed, and somebody runs into him from the opposing team – we have leverage, we’re jumping first,” head coach Bradley Carnell said in the postgame. “All I saw was a real fair play on the ball. And our player gets run into, and the other player goes down holding his face.”

This is the Union: they don’t just live for those 50/50s, they live amongst them. That is the game as they want to play it, and even if this night ended in frustration, more often than not, it’s ended with Philly grabbing all three points.

It’s the other stuff, though – the somewhat troubling stuff that’s been on display since Tai Baribo cooled off at the end of May – that was also on display:

That’s a chance, man. That’s your best player serving up a game-winner on a platter (there is no doubt now that Kai Wagner is their best player).

But it’s now just 10 goals for Philly in nine games since they drew Inter Miami 3-3 on May 24. Baribo scored twice in that game, and has scored once in six appearances since. Mikael Uhre has scored just twice all year. Bruno Damiani looks the part and is always dangerous, but has just four goals on the season in 23 appearances. Not good enough from a record signing (I’m still holding all my Damiani stock, to be clear; if he doesn’t break out down the stretch here, he absolutely will next season).

With Dániel Gazdag gone, none of the remaining midfielders have truly been goal-dangerous. Gazdag, as a matter of fact, is still tied for third on the team with two goals; he hasn’t played for Philly since being traded to Columbus on April 11.

Those are the negatives, the reasons to doubt. Here are the positives:

But it’s the same question this year that it’s been every other year when it comes time for trophy talk: do they have enough talent, relative to the other teams in the hunt, to put them into the winner’s circle? Wagner is their best player; he can serve ‘em up, but he can’t then knock ‘em home, as well. Lately, nobody else has been able to either. Not consistently, anyway.

As for the Dynamo, it feels like a must-win on Friday when they host the Galaxy, which is one of just four remaining home games they’ve got. It’s not like the rest of the West is running away or anything, but if they don’t win this one, there’s probably no soccer in Houston this November.

We Can Run

Orlando went to Foxborough on Saturday night in the midst of a four-game winless skid, trying desperately to pull out of a nose-dive threatening to undo what’s been a really good season to this point.

They’re fortunate they caught a Revs side that’s hit a full death spiral, with one win in their past 13 across all competitions entering the game. They have become a get-right game, and Orlando did indeed get right, with Martín Ojeda getting both goals as the Cats won 2-1.

Armchair Analyst special correspondent Calen Carr had a front-row seat for the call on Season Pass:

Ok, Doyle again here. As the world’s No. 1 Eddie Atuesta stan, I will co-sign everything Calen wrote. But I feel the need to point out what I feel is the biggest reason Orlando are not a threat to crack that top five:

I mentioned last week that Luis Muriel hasn’t scored in two months. You see why, right?

This is also an example of how/why Orlando aren’t as dangerous as they should be in possession, because sequences like that have to turn into shots, at the very least. A goalscoring 9 sniffs that out, and isn’t two yards behind the play.

As for the Revs: Their overall expected goals differential is not good, but not a complete disaster.

What is, however, is their expected goals differential when the game is tied. They are third-worst in the league, ahead of only the Galaxy and Sporting KC, and it shows on plays like the one above (the Ojeda goal, not the Muriel… whatever that was), where they’re tentative and confused about who’s responsible for getting pressure to the ball, as well as how and when to drop their line.

As such, they’re playing from behind a ton. And while they’re pretty good at that – top three in the league in xGD when trailing – “we’re pretty good at chasing the game because we have to do it all the time!” is the soccer equivalent of “other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”

They’re 11th in the East, eight points below the playoff line, and have taken two of the last 24 points on offer. If they don’t take all three at home vs. Montréal on Friday, I don’t see a possible path to the postseason.

A few more things to ponder...

12. There was maybe a hint of schadenfreude around the league when Miami got pummeled 3-0 at FC Cincinnati midweek. Eight games in 32 days and the weariness was starting to show, right? Turns out they couldn’t keep it up? Even Leo Messi was suddenly mortal, as his string of five straight braces came to an end.

Turns out the beating just pissed ‘em off. After Rocco Ríos Novo (now starting for the injured Óscar Ustari - and injured Drake Callender – as Miami’s infirmary cadre has grown to a half-dozen) flapped at a corner to give RBNY a 1-0 lead, it was just a case of Miami finding the accelerator and jamming it down as far as it could go. It ended 5-1 to the visitors in Harrison; the Red Bulls had no chance.

Messi had a pair of assists, then got what’s become his usual brace. I’m giving Sergio Busquets our Pass of the Week here:

That gap between RBNY’s attackers and deeper midfielders has been there pretty consistently all season. Of course Messi and Busquets were going to capitalize.

That five-team group in the Eastern Conference starting to break away in the Shield race? The Herons are one of them, of course, and if they beat Cincy in a revenge match on Saturday then they probably become the favorites.

RBNY are down to 9th in the East, and fractionally 10th on PPG. They haven’t missed the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs since 2009, and are in real danger of breaking that streak.

Saturday’s trip to Chicago is enormous. A true six-pointer.

11. The Fire put together probably their best and most focused all-around defensive performance of the year in Saturday’s 2-0 win at Montréal. It was a necessary salve after the disappointment of Wednesday night – they conceded late on a set piece in Atlanta, which turned what should’ve been a 2-1 win into a 2-2 draw.

This was just their third clean sheet of the season.

“It’s a huge thing to take from tonight, to show that we can keep clean sheets,” said center back Jack Elliott, who got his first goal for Chicago when he headed home a Philip Zinckernagel corner in the 54th minute. “I feel over the last few weeks, we haven't necessarily given up a lot of chances, we’ve just been caught at the wrong times and given up some goals in the wrong moments.

“I think it shows tonight the strength and resilience in not really conceding too many big chances. I don’t really remember any big chances against [tonight].”

Season-defining stretch coming up.

10. The only team in the league to take all nine points this week? Charlotte FC. The Crown started with a 2-0 win vs. New York City FC, followed it up with a tighter-than-it-should-have-been 2-1 win at home over D.C. United at midweek, and then scored three beautiful team goals (then had to hang on for dear life at the end) for a 3-2 win at Atlanta this weekend.

Pep Biel had a goal and two assists. Idan Toklomati – please do not recruit over him, guys; he’s your 9 – had another goal, giving him four in his past six games. And even Wilfried Zaha got in on the action with a goal and an assist.

Toklomati’s goals aren’t fluky; he’s an xG machine. But he’s not just that, as his ability to drop into the left half-space and combine has allowed Zaha to get a little bit more involved, and has also let Biel stretch the field a little bit. On aggregate, he’s getting his touches deeper into the midfield than Biel the past few games:

That’s the touch map from the trip to Atlanta. Toklomati is No. 17, Biel No. 16, and it looked similar in the wins over NYCFC and D.C. Charlotte have unlocked something here after a long, rough spring.

Atlanta are now 13 points below the playoff line. I don’t think they’ve got a playoff push in them.

9. The Crew took care of business with a 2-1 home win over D.C. United, which was most notable for Gazdag finally getting off the schneid and scoring his first Columbus goal (he still has more goals for the Union than the Crew this year). Naturally, it came from the spot.

“Daniel had the PK, and it's not easy when you [won] the PK to take the PK. Diego [Rossi] right away said to Daniel, ‘Yeah, take it,’ because usually this is Diego,” head coach Wilfried Nancy said afterward. “Everybody was happy, happy for him, obviously, because he needed it.”

Do the floodgates open for Gazdag now? I wouldn’t be surprised; his movement remains really good – Nancy pointed out how often he was finding space behind the defense – and he’s combining well. He’s just got the yips in front of goal.

The Crew, like Miami, bounced back from a 3-0 midweek thrashing (Columbus took theirs in Nashville). Like Miami, I expect them to keep winning down the stretch, though unlike Miami, I still wonder if their match-winners are good enough.

8. NYCFC continued their Jekyll-and-Hyde season with a 1-1 draw at Sporting KC, which followed a mid-week win at Orlando, which followed last weekend’s 2-0 loss at Charlotte.

I’m assuming their new DP No. 10, Nicolás Fernández Mercau, will be available this weekend, since the summer window officially opens on Thursday. Maybe he can bring some consistency to an attack that’s lacked it for what seems like years.

7. Nashville’s attack left the door open against Toronto, squandering one good chance after another once Sam Surridge made it 1-0 just before the half hour. But the defense slammed it shut and kept the shutout without Joe Willis ever having to make a save.

This was, obviously, a game of lesser importance than their 3-0 midweek demolition of the Crew, which was one of the handful of best performances in team history. Surridge scored in that one, too, and it shouldn’t go underappreciated just how spectacular a season he’s having:

Of games between the five-team East pack I’ve been talking about throughout this column, the ‘Yotes have the second-best record (3W-2L-1D), behind only Miami (4W-1L-1D). One of the few West teams that look capable of crashing that party has been San Diego, which is where Nashville will head on Friday for some late night Viernes de Futbol.

As for the Reds… just play the kids from here on out. They’re not making the playoffs anyway, and 2025 minutes for Lazar Stefanović have long-term potential upside that 2025 minutes for Kevin Long do not.

6. That San Diego side ended up starting maybe the least experienced backline I’ve ever seen in MLS, with a pair of teenagers (Oscar Verhoeven at right back; Luca Bombino at left back) at fullback, and a pair of rookies (Ian Pilcher and Manu Duah – who is actually a midfielder) at center back on Saturday night in a 1-1 draw with Vancouver. Combined age: 80 years old.

The result managed to be fortunate: the ‘Caps missed a bunch of good chances to make it 2-0, and Pilcher found a late equalizer after Bombino squibbed a shot at the top of the box.

The result managed to be unfortunate: Vancouver’s goal came from a Duah own goal after a great save from Pablo Sisniega.

That Sisniega save was off one of two wickedly disguised shots from Édier Ocampo late in the first half:

Both of those come more quickly, and with more power than you’d think given Ocampo’s body shape. He is a weapon, and one of the issues Vancouver have had over the past six weeks is they haven’t been able to get on the ball enough to give him space coming forward.

Still, the ‘Caps finished their five-game road trip with a very respectable 2W-2L-1D tally, and now have seven of their final 11 games at home. And while they had to bid adieu to Pedro Vite this week, the good news is they’re reportedly about to sign his replacement in Peruvian winger Kenji Cabrera, and the extra good news is Ryan Gauld finally seems to be nearing a return to full training.

If that’s the case, then hopefully a return to game action won’t be far off.

5. While my knock on Philly and Columbus all year has been their lack of top-end talent, my line on FC Cincinnati is that they are where they are only because of their top-end talent. Mostly that’s meant Evander (currently third on my Landon Donovan MLS MVP ballot), Kévin Denkey (injured this week, and out for a month) and Roman Celentano.

That has mostly not meant Luca Orellano, who entered Saturday’s trip to Utah with just one goal all year, but who has started to come out of his slump since being moved permanently back out to wingback in the middle of June.

And now he’s a match-winner, too:

That was it from their 1-0 win at RSL.

The Garys are a weird team: the underlying numbers have been screaming warning signs since Matchday 1, and until recently they were overperforming those numbers even more than what Miami did last season, or famous regression-to-the-mean teams like St. Louis (2023) and Austin (2022) earlier this decade.

Here’s how it breaks down by game state:

I do think it speaks to a lack of overall balance and cohesion. I don’t think it’s reason to panic, but it’s something Pat Noonan needs to solve, even if they’re currently atop the Shield standings.

RSL – 10th on points in the West, but 9th on PPG – are still in decent shape given their remaining schedule. Saturday’s visit from San Jose is absolutely massive.

4. Omir Fernandez got his first goal for the Timbers on the club’s 50th anniversary, ghosting to the back post at the death to rescue a point via a 1-1 home draw against Minnesota. An appropriate capper to a game that began in front of maybe the most spectacular tifos I’ve ever seen in this league:

(I saw this shared on social media, but could not find the original post. Someone ping whoever posted it for me!)

Portland had almost 65% possession, and they did a good job of turning that into good shots: 15 of them, from all phases of play.

"I thought it was one of our best performances of the season,” head coach Phil Neville said in the postgame. “I thought that night summed up what we are as a city and a football club."

He also lamented the fact the Loons took a 1-0 lead in the first place on a set piece, which 1) is Minnesota’s M.O., and 2) is starting to be a worry for the Timbers. Their defensive success during the first half of the season was in large part from limiting the damage on restarts, but they’ve now conceded four goals off of set pieces in their past five games. It’s starting to slip.

The Loons are still staring down the barrel of the same worry they’ve had all year: closing out games. They’ve now got a -7 goal differential from the 70th minute onwards, and have dropped 13 points from winning positions. For the year they manage to have just 32% of the ball when leading, with a hilarious 28% field tilt.

This is a very good team with a very obvious flaw they need to remedy. I’m not saying they should go out there and be Columbus or San Diego with the ball, but they’ve got to figure out how to take at least a little sting out of the game when opponents are desperate.

3. Sounders fans had been calling for Pedro de la Vega to get a look on the left wing for months, and Brian Schmetzer finally caved, giving the DP the start there – his first-ever for the Sounders in his natural spot – on Saturday night at home against the Quakes. De la Vega rewarded his coach with a man-of-the-match performance, logging a goal and an assist in a 3-2 win.

“I’ve had a lot of time to think about the lineup and Pedro has played his way into consideration on the left,” Schemtzer said afterward, in what was perhaps a bit of understatement. I mean:

That was the good news for Seattle. The bad news is Jordan Morris is out indefinitely again, and will need surgery on his AC joint after being upended by San Jose goalkeeper Daniel (I thought it was a clean play; so did Schmetzer) while trying to run down a through ball in the first half.

That opened the door for Danny Musovski to come on and bag two goals, but it also probably puts some urgency into Seattle’s hunt for a U22 No. 9 to add to the depth chart.

San Jose have now won just once in eight. They’re not losing a lot – this is just their third since April – but with how hard their remaining schedule is, things are getting a little bit grim.

2. Another El Tráfico, another wild game with great goals, big mistakes and late heroics. This time, the last word was had by Galaxy center back Maya Yoshida, who snuck into the box six-and-a-half minutes into second-half stoppage to head home the equalizer in what became a 3-3 draw.

“These games are always crazy, so, in a rivalry game or any game you never give up,” LA head coach Greg Vanney said in the postgame. “These games specifically have always had a way to have some crazy in them. Didn't disappoint there at the end.”

The equalizer was not at all undeserved, as the Galaxy have been playing pretty decent soccer for a month now (2W-2L-3D in their past seven), and rallied back from two separate two-goal deficits in this one.

LAFC are unbeaten in four, but head into Friday’s matchup with Portland without Aaron Long (done for the year after tearing his Achilles’ last week) and Eddie Segura (picked up a late red card vs. the Galaxy).

They’re going to have to scramble.

1. And finally, our Face of the Week goes to Sam Sarver, who is so “Goonies” Quakes coded it’s almost impossible he came through the Crew academy and now plays for FC Dallas:

This was not a late winner. This was a late penalty he drew to make it 3-0 Dallas over visiting St. Louis, which is how it finished. I love the enthusiasm.

A four-point week kept Dallas’s faint playoff hopes alive, and it’s probably worth noting all four points came without the services of Lucho Acosta. He missed Wednesday’s incredibly important draw at San Jose serving a suspension for yellow card accumulation, and then missed Saturday for what the team described as personal reasons.

Argentina’s transfer window closes Wednesday. Just sayin’.