Predicted Starting Line-Up: Newcastle United vs Manchester City (Carabao Cup Semi-Final First Leg) | OneFootball

Few domestic fixtures demand such precise caution and ambition as a two-legged semi-final, and that will be at the heart of Manchester City’s approach at St James’ Park on Tuesday night against Newcastle United in the opening leg of a Carabao Cup semi-final.

For Pep Guardiola, this competition has taken on renewed significance with City having not lifted the EFL Cup since the end of their remarkable four-year run between 2017/18 and 2020/21, and recent campaigns have ended prematurely.

Reaching this stage represents both progress and expectation for the Etihad Stadium club, particularly given the context of a Premier League title race with the likes of Arsenal and Aston Villa that has slowed in recent weeks.

Manchester City arrive on Tyneside having steadied themselves after a run of three consecutive league draws. While that sequence has left them six points adrift of Arsenal and level with Aston Villa, the broader picture remains one of consistency.

Guardiola’s side are unbeaten in 12 matches in all competitions, winning nine of those outings including a ruthless 10-1 dismantling of Exeter in the FA Cup third round at the weekend. That victory was shaped by heavy rotation – something Pep Guardiola has leaned on throughout City’s cup run.

The Carabao Cup semi-final, however, requires a recalibration. The objective here is not spectacle, but control. With the return leg at the Etihad Stadium in early February, Manchester City’s priority will be to take a positive, manageable result back home and avoid repeating their 2-1 league defeat at this ground earlier in the season.

And ahead of this week’s blockbuster contest in the North-East, here is how we predict Pep Guardiola will line-up his Manchester City side in Carabao Cup action!

Predicted XI

James Trafford is will retain his place in goal. The Carabao Cup has served as Trafford’s competition, and his composure in possession is particularly valuable at St James’ Park, where Newcastle will look to feed off crowd energy and press aggressively in opening phases.

In the full-back areas, rotation is expected again. Matheus Nunes should come in at right-back – a role that has increasingly seen him step into midfield during build-up rather than provide traditional width, shifting Rico Lewis back onto the substitutes’ bench.

The defensive unit continues to reflect necessity rather than choice. With John Stones, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol all sidelined through injuries, Max Alleyne and Abdukodir Khusanov are set to continue as the central pairing.

The aforementioned duo have started Manchester City’s last two matches and, while relatively inexperienced at this level, have shown an ability to hold their line and follow positional instructions. Against a Newcastle side built around physicality and direct running, discipline will be key.

On the left side of the back-four, Nico O’Reilly is anticipated to start, offering balance and ball retention rather than overlapping aggression. This configuration allows City to maintain their preferred box midfield structure without exposing the centre-backs to wide transitions.

The most notable change from the weekend is likely to be the return of Nico at the base of midfield. Rodri has taken encouraging steps in his recovery and found the net against Exeter, but this fixture comes with a different physical demand.

Nico Gonzalez offers stability, physicality and the ability to stay strong and composed under pressure – attributes that head coach Pep Guardiola will value in a notoriously hostile away environment.

Ahead of him, Manchester City’s midfield and attacking line begin to resemble a more familiar shape. Tijjani Reijnders is expected to retain his place, having quietly become one of City’s most consistent performers between the lines.

The Netherlands international’s ability to arrive late into the penalty area while still contributing defensively provides balance in games where Manchester City may not dominate territory throughout.

Bernardo Silva is also set to return to the starting XI after being rested at the weekend. His inclusion is less about raw output and more about intelligence, with his movement between half-spaces, particularly drifting infield from right, often dictates the rhythm of City’s attacking phases.

Rayan Cherki should also start, continuing a run that reflects Pep Guardiola’s growing trust in the Frenchman. His creativity in tight areas is now matched by improved work without the ball – an essential requirement in a semi-final where transitions can decide the tie.

Erling Haaland is expected to spearhead the attack. While his recent goals have been more sporadic by his standards, his presence alone alters defensive behaviour. Newcastle will be acutely aware of his ability to punish even small lapses, particularly in transition moments when City break at speed.

Haaland’s task here is as much about occupying defenders as finishing chances. By pinning centre-backs deep, he creates space for the likes of Cherki, Doku and Reijnders to operate between the lines – a structural priority in Guardiola’s planning.

On the left, Jeremy Doku’s return adds a different dimension. His directness and pace are valuable against a Newcastle back line that prefers to defend narrow. Doku’s role will be to stretch the pitch horizontally, forcing Newcastle’s midfield to make difficult decisions about when to shuffle and when to hold.

Manchester City’s approach is likely to be measured; expect long spells of controlled possession. Newcastle’s intensity will ebb and flow, and City’s challenge is to manage those swings without conceding territory cheaply.

For City, this first leg is not about deciding the tie but shaping it. Control, discipline, and efficiency will define whether they return to the Etihad Stadium with the advantage Pep Guardiola demands at this stage of the competition.

Starting XI: Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Alleyne, O’Reilly; Nico, Bernardo, Reijnders; Cherki, Haaland, Doku.

Substitutes: Donnarumma, Lewis, Ake, Mfuni, Rodri, McAidoo, Mukasa, Foden, Semenyo.