Premier League 2025/26 Betting Snapshot: Can Newcastle crash the top four? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Newcastle have the best chance of breaking into the top four, according to Betfair odds

The Betfair market says Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea will all finish in the top four but which clubs are best placed to upset the odds and claim a Champions League place?

Liverpool lead odds-on quartet in Premier League top four finish market

Liverpool are the shortest price of any team to finish in the Premier League top four in 2025/26. The champions and title favourites are 1/14 to finish in the top four while Arsenal 2/15, Manchester City 1/5 and Chelsea 4/7 are expected to take up the other Champions League places. If the market is right the top four will look identical to the way it did last season. And the top quartet will be clear of the chasing pack.

But could one of the odds-on quartet slide out of the top four? It made for a nailbiting race in 2024/25, with only Liverpool and runners-up Arsenal ever looking assured of their places. Manchester City needed a late season surge and Chelsea nabbed fourth on the final day.

Top four alternatives - Newcastle are 2/1

Newcastle 2/1 finished fifth last season and the Betfair market gives them the best chance of breaking into the top four in 2025/26. Eddie Howe's team are back in the Champions League (there were five places up for grabs for English clubs due to their success in European competitions in 2024/25 ) and they ended their wait for a trophy by winning the Carabao Cup. They are going places.

The picture is complicated, however, by Alexander Isak's uncertain future. He was Newcsastle's star man last season with 25 goals but reportedly wants to join Liverpool. He would be a big loss to Newcastle and, even though, Isak would command a big fee it is uncertain whether a replacement would be able to fill the gap adequately.

Aston Villa, Man Utd and Tottenham top four odds

Aston Villa finished fourth in 2023/24 but slipped to sixth last season. They are 4/1 to break back into the Champions League places in 2025/26 and, at the prices, may be a decent bet. In Unai Emery, they have an astute manager and, while playing in the Europa League could be draining, the Spaniard has shown that he knows how to make the most his squad resources.

The Villans certainly look a more appealing play than Manchester United who may be on the skinny side at 4/1. They would need to improve by at least 11 places on last season's 15th. It is a possibility that, with Ruben Amorim getting a summer to assess his squad and no European football to distract them, they will be better this season. But how much better is anyone's guess.

Similar applies to Tottenham 5/1 who finished one place above the relegation zone. They have a new manager in Thomas Frank, though, who last season steered Brentford to 10th. A Champions League campaign, courtesy of winning the Europa League, could stretch them and it may be a big ask for Frank to get Tottenham challening for the top four in his first season.

Outside those teams it is a big leap to 16/1 Brighton, 25/1 Bournemouth and 28/1 trio Nottingham Forest, Everton and Crystal Palace.