Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back Goals and a comfortable City win in a 11/2 acca | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD27 on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for all five Premier League Matchday 27 fixtures on Saturday...

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Aston Villa v Leeds Tip - Back goals at Villa Park

Aston Villa v LeedsSaturday, 15:00

With just two Premier League wins in their last six games, Aston Villa look a bit short at 4/5 to beat a Leeds United side with just two defeats in their last 13 matches. At home, Villa have already lost to Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford, so this fixture will hold no fear for Leeds and they can make it more competitive than the odds suggest.

As a result, goals look the way to play this. 14 of Aston Villa's last 22 games across all competitions have seen Over 2.5 goals (64%) and for Leeds, 15 of their last 22 league matches have delivered a winner in this market (68%). Leeds will always give you a chance at the back as well, having conceded two or more in 11 of their last 21 league games. There were three goals in the reverse fixture as Villa won 2-1 at Elland Road.

Brentford v Brighton Tip - Goals the route at the Gtech

Brentford v BrightonSaturday, 15:00

It feels like a bit of a crisis at Brighton right now. No win in their last six Premier League games and only one win in their last 13 means they are now just seven points above the drop. I'm generally not an advocate of sacking managers but given the way the industry is, I'm a little surprised  Fabian Hürzeler still has a job after their 3-0 defeat at Anfield in the FA Cup last time out.

However, having said all of that, I don't want to back Brentford at odds-on given the Bees were 8/5 in this fixture last season and I'm not sure they have improved/Brighton regressed significantly for the odds to move that far. So given Brighton are involved, it has to be goals backed here. A total of 25 of their last 41 Premier League matches have seen three or more goals and their defence is still a major issue with just six clean sheets in their last 38 games - a whole seasons worth.

I'm a big fan of Brentford for a goals-based bet given they have created the sixth most expected goals in the league but similarly to their opposition, have only managed six clean sheets all season. Seven of their last 12 fixtures at home have seen Over 2.5 goals and the reverse fixture finished 2-1 to the Seagulls.

Chelsea v Burnley Tip - Back difference maker Palmer

Chelsea v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

Life under Liam Rosenior seems to moving smoothly with four wins in their last five Premier League games, scoring at least two goals in all five, and progression into the fifth round of the FA Cup with a 4-0 victory last time out. Opponents Burnley look easily opposable, having conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches and failing to keep a clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League away games.

So how do we make 1/5 Chelsea pay? Cole Palmer looks the player. It's been a bit of stop-start season for the England man but since his return in early December he's been in great form with seven goals in 11 league games - the joint most in the league. He has a particular propensity against newly promoted sides as well with 14 goals involvements in his 12 Premier League starts for Chelsea (eight goals, six assists). With the advantage of him being on penalties too, it looks the way to back Chelsea here.

West Ham v Bournemouth Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

West Ham v BournemouthSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

This looks like it should be an entertaining affair on Saturday tea time. West Ham have won three of their last five Premier League games to claw themselves within three points of safety and after a mid-season wobble, Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last six matches.

West Ham's recent success could be attributed to their increased desperation and as a result they are leaving more space at the back with nine of their last 11 games seeing Over 2.5 goals. They've still failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season as well.

For Bournemouth, they are an Overs machine on the road with 25 of their last 32 Premier League matches featuring three or more goals (78%). The reverse fixture finished 2-2 and I'm hoping for more of the same with the goal line set at 2.75.

Man City v Newcastle Tip - Back the home side to win with ease

Man City v NewcastleSaturday, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

This looks a great matchup for Manchester City. They have won their last 16 Premier League home matches against Newcastle United and have the week off coming into this compared to Newcastle having to come all the way back from Azerbaijan on Wedensday night for a very quick turnaround.

This is further compounded by the absence of their best player in Bruno Guimaraes. In his time on Tyneside, he's missed 10 league matches and they have failed to win any without him. Their goals per-game output drops from 1.9 to 0.5 without him, whilst they're conceding 1.5 goals per-game versus 1.2 with him. City won this fixture 4-0 last season and I think it will be a case of how many they want to win by.

Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in a treble at 11/2

Back Over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Leeds, Brentford v Brighton and Man City -1

SBK 11/2

Now read Premier League Opta Stats for every Matchday 27 game

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