PSG, OM and Monaco, key matches to watch on Champions League league phase finale | OneFootball

The Champions League league phase concludes with PSG, OM and Monaco chasing top eight or play-off spots.

According to L'Équipe, a model built by mathematician Julien Guyon identifies the fixtures that matter most and assigns probabilities.

PSG, sixth, complicated matters with a 2-1 defeat at Sporting last week. The model gives them a 67.3% chance of finishing top eight after facing seventh-placed Newcastle, and a win would nearly seal it given their goal difference.

If results elsewhere matter, Manchester City vs Galatasaray is PSG’s key game to monitor, then Atlético Madrid vs Bodö Glimt and Barcelona vs FC Copenhagen, both about 5.5%.

OM, 19th, visit Club Bruges and sit at 92.1% to make the play-offs for places nine to 24 regardless of their result. Barcelona vs FC Copenhagen carries about 13.4% importance, followed by Ajax vs Olympiakos at 11.4%.

A draw in Bruges would guarantee Marseille progress, and even with defeat their top 24 probability is 82.8%. They have nine points and a neutral goal difference, one more than Olympiakos on minus five and FC Copenhagen on minus six.

Monaco, 21st, host 15th-placed Juventus, with a 76.6% chance of reaching the play-offs that drops to 34.1% if they lose. Even a draw is not fully safe at 98.6%.

Their key results to track are Naples vs Chelsea at 11.1%, PSV Eindhoven vs Bayern Munich at 10.9%, and Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Portugal at 10.8%. Monaco have nine points and minus six, one more than PSV on plus one and Athletic Bilbao on minus four.

Source: L'Équipe