Ranking 7 contenders for group-stage humiliation at the 2026 World Cup: USA, Brazil… | OneFootball

Italy in 2010. Spain in 2014. Germany in 2018. We’ve seen some shocking World Cup group-stage exits over the years, but it appears less likely in 2026 after the tournament was expanded to 48 teams.

There’s no proper Group of Death, all the seeded teams have been spread out, and sneaking through in third place should see most of the heavy-hitters make it through to the knockout stages. Still, we can’t completely rule out a surprise early collapse.

We’ve ranked seven potential contenders for group-stage humiliation at the 2026 World Cup.

7. Germany

Unbelievably, Germany haven’t played a World Cup knockout stage match since lifting the trophy back in 2014.

But the guarantee of three points (and racking up a cricket score) against minnows Curacao should insulate Die Mannschaft from another group-stage elimination this time.

Three points isn’t a total guarantee of making it through as one of the better third-placed teams, though. Defeats to Ecuador and Ivory Coast aren’t out of the question, given their sketchy record of late.

6. Brazil

The only nation to have made it to every single World Cup, they’ve also advanced beyond the group stages in every tournament since 1966.

On English soil that summer, the Selecao finished third in their group behind Portugal and Hungary.

A group-stage exit in 2026 wouldn’t rank quite as high as that in terms of shocks, given it punctuated three World Cup triumphs out of four, but it wouldn’t be far off, given the expansion and a considerably more forgiving fixture list.

Brazil have shown some improvement under Carlo Ancelotti, but they’ve been out of sorts for years, were rubbish at the last Copa America, and their friendly defeat to France is a reminder this remains a work in progress.

They really should be fine. But a tough opener against a well-drilled Morocco might set the tone for a difficult tournament. Fortunately, they’ve got Haiti and Scotland afterwards. They can’t mess that up, surely? Never say never.

5. Argentina

At the last World Cup, France bucked the trend of the holders going out at the earliest juncture. But could Lionel Messi’s Argentina join Italy and Spain in the hall of shame?

Their first two fixtures against Algeria and Austria have banana skins written all over them – particularly when you consider they contrived to lose to Saudi Arabia at the last one.

Messi looked surprisingly sharp in his last friendly appearance, and Argentina’s qualifying record was strong. But surely at 38 he can’t carry them on his shoulders again?

Alexis Mac Allister looks knackered and out of form. There is no replacement for Angel Di Maria. An ancient Nicolas Otamendi is still somehow getting call-ups. Do they still have the hunger? The intensity?

As long as those questions linger, we’re not completely ruling out a group-stage exit.

4. Norway

Would a group stage exit be a “humiliation”?

Fair question. Erling Haaland wasn’t even alive at their last appearance in the finals, France 98.

We are including them because Norway have all the makings of your office know-it-all’s ‘dark horse’ pick. As with all dark horses, they’re just as viable to crash out spectacularly (Turkey at Euro 2020 say hello) as make people look clever by actually going deep.

Nothing would surprise us with Norway. They were superb in qualifying, with a 100% win ratio, and could make a nuisance of themselves. But there’s every chance they don’t.

Up against Iraq or Bolivia, they should theoretically kick things off with a win. They might need it, with hot favourites France and Senegal to come afterwards.

3. United States

November’s eye-catching 5-1 mauling of Uruguay gave Mauricio Pochettino something of a reprieve and the statement victory he’d long been searching for after a difficult start to life as USA boss.

There was a Gold Cup final defeat to Mexico. A disaster in the Nations League finals a year ago. A series of unconvincing performances and poor results.

Finally, the big-name appointment delivered something, but even that came with awkward questions.

While Pochettino’s mentor Marcelo Bielsa fielded a full-strength Uruguay side, Pochettino rotated heavily and leaned on lesser lights who stepped up admirably.

Senior stars including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Folarin Balogun returned to the fold against Belgium and were promptly handed their arses in a 5-2 friendly defeat.

We just can’t help shake the feeling that the host nation simply aren’t up to much.

They’ll have to work hard to mess up a draw that features Paraguay, Australia and Kosovo or Turkey, but they might just do it. Every camera on Trump if it comes to pass.

2. Croatia

The only side alongside France to make it to the final four of the last two tournaments. We’ve been saying this forever, in fairness, but surely this is one tournament too far.

Luka Modric is seemingly eternal, but the rest of his generation have inevitably faded away and the new crop don’t appear up to the same standard. And star defender Josko Gvardiol faces a race to be fit after breaking his leg in January.

England and Ghana may simply be stronger than them. They ought to have too much for Panama, but will that be enough?

1. Scotland

Like Norway, Scotland arguably don’t have any business being in this list. The wild scenes of jubilation following the win over Denmark told you that being there is an achievement in itself.

Nobody is backing Steve Clarke’s men to make it to the latter stages. And why should they? The Tartan Army haven’t been to a World Cup in 28 years. And they have never made it beyond the group stages.

Morocco made it to the final four last time and Brazil are Brazil. The task at hand looks immensely daunting, particularly in the wake of their tepid display in defeat to Japan.

On the plus side, Scotland’s opener is against Haiti, who are 43 places behind them in the FIFA rankings. Win that, rack up the score, and Morocco and Brazil could become academic. A first-ever World Cup knockout match might just be within reach.

But this is Scotland, and this is a World Cup. These things are easier said than done, as anyone who was around in the ’70s and ’80s will tell you.