Stuttgart v PSG: Hosts can squeeze through to playoff round | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Sebastian Hoeness has transformed Stuttgart from relegation battlers to Champions League combatants

Both Stuttgart and PSG are looking to reach the knockout phase of the Champions League, and Kevin Hatchard is favouring the home side.

Stuttgart v PSGWednesday 29 January, 20:00Live on Discovery+

Portsmouth huffed and puffed, but they failed to blow Millwall's house down last night, and that 1-0 home defeat took us down with them.

We'll head to Germany now, because Stuttgart and PSG are still not sure of a place in the Champions League playoffs. As Mike Norman explains in his wonderful Champions League permutations guide, a draw would effectively take both teams through, but defeat for either would put them in serious danger.

There is a temptation to think there will be some kind of entente cordiale here, with both teams happy with a point. That may end up being true if the game is level with ten minutes to go, but I don't think the Stuttgart fans (especially on the famed Cannstatter Kurve) will accept that kind of approach in the early stages.

After a shaky start to the season, Stuttgart have hauled themselves into the top four in the Bundesliga (they are six points clear of ailing Borussia Dortmund) and they are on a run of eight wins in ten in all competitions.

In the Champions League, it's been something of a rollercoaster for Sebastian Hoeness' team. They have had incredible highs (they outplayed Juventus in a 1-0 victory in Turin) but also significant lows (they were smashed 5-1 at Red Star Belgrade). That said, this is a unit with no collective experience in Europe, so I would say it's been a good effort to be in the mix for qualification.

PSG showed their quality in last week's 4-2 comeback win against Manchester City, and it was a major boost for the project. The galacticos approach was a complete failure in the UCL, as PSG realised you can't win at the highest level if you have Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi just trotting around like show ponies when you don't have the ball.

Instead, the ownership have targeted the best young talent in France and beyond, and while the team can be profligate in front of goal and occasionally clumsy at the back, they have some very exciting talents. Bradley Barcola showed how exciting he can be when he destroyed City, pocket rocket Joao Neves is a midfield superstar in the making, and Vitinha has come on leaps and bounds since struggling at Wolves.

PSG lost meekly at Arsenal and Bayern in the group stage, and their 3-0 win at hapless Salzburg doesn't tell us much. Stuttgart haven't been invincible at home, but with an incredible crowd behind them and a plethora of attacking options (Deniz Undav, Nick Woltemade, Enzo Millot and Ermedin Demirovic are all potentially vying for two spots) I think they can at least pick up a point and make the knockout rounds.

I'll back Stuttgart +0 & +0.5 at 1.82 here on the Asian Handicap. A draw gives us a half-win, and if the hosts win we get a full pay-out. PSG have won just seven of their last 20 away games in the Champions League.