Tottenham v Wolves: Back a low-scoring home win and oppose Kudus shots | OneFootball

Tottenham v WolvesSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Good start, bad start

Liverpool have skipped into an early five-point lead at the top of the Premier League table, but it's Tottenham - alongside north London rivals Arsenal and surprise package Bournemouth - that are best of the rest at this early stage of the season with 10 points collected from their opening five games.

It's Liverpool who are also out in front in terms of goals scored, but once again it's Tottenham who follow close behind in second. The numbers alone tell you it's been a very decent start to the new campaign for Thomas Frank's men.

Perhaps Spurs haven't had the hardest set of fixturesto date, having had to play just one - Manchester City - of last season's clubs that qualified for Europe courtesy of a top seven finish, and if there's any truth in that then their upcoming fixtures look even kinder... on paper at least.

Tottenham play newly-promoted Leeds and struggling Aston Villa either side of the next international break, and before those two games they host rock bottom Wolves on Saturday, so they have an excellent opportunity to cement their position in the top four.

But with the above comes an obvious caveat, and every Spurs fan will know exactly what I mean when I say Dr Tottenham!

Down the years Spurs have had an uncanny knack of being the opposition that struggling teams suddenly break a poor run of form against, and with Wolves having lost five out of five in the Premier League this season then not many people will raise eyebrows should Vitor Pereira's men take all three points back to Molineux on Saturday evening. For punters eyeing up Spurs as a good thing or perfect ACCA material at just 2/5 you have been warned!

Home win likely but it won't be a stroll

But in all honesty it's difficult to envisage Dr Tottenham being on call when Wolves visit north London, and the Match Odds market certainly agrees.

Spurs are 2/5 to win the game, and you'd be excused for thinking they should be even shorter on the evidence of Wolves' 1-3 home defeat to Leeds last weekend. But perhaps we should ignore Wolves' form at Molineux for the time being and concentrate only on their away form.

Pereira's men have conceded an alarming 10 goals in three league games on home soil this term, but away from home they've conceded just two goals in a pair of 1-0 defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle. They conceded an average of just 9.5 shots per game in those two matches, which for an away team is well below the league average, so they obviously set up to nullify the opposition when playing away from home and it will be up to Tottenham to break them down.

Break them down I think Spurs will, so I have no interest in the away win price of 11/2 or even the draw at 17/5, and I certainly couldn't put up a 2/5 shot as a win single, so it's elsewhere we must look for a bet.

Just follow the form

Spurs are a little bit similar to Wolves in that the number of goals scored in home games is in contrast to the number of goals scored away form the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Tottenham's four home games this term have witnessed a total of eight goals (2.0 per game) including two 1-0 outcomes, while away from home (including their Super Cup game at a neutral venue) 13 goals have been scored in four games (3.25 per game). It's worth noting that not one of Spurs' four home games saw both teams hit the back of the net, and all four had under 3.5 goals.

So maybe the obvious bet is staring us right in the face; a game in which Tottenham should win but on the evidence of their home results this season along with Wolves' away results, then we shouldn't expect too many goals. And there's certainly a case to be made for Wolves going to north London and shutting up shop and making it incredibly tough for their opponents.

A Tottenham win and Under 3.5 Match Goals can be backed at 5/4 and that makes plenty of appeal. For the bet to land we will require Spurs to win via a 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 scoreline.

If you fancy puffing your chest out and going for the braver, more rewarding outcome then you can back a Tottenham win and Under 2.5 Match Goals - so 1-0 or 2-0 - at 11/4.

Oppose Kudus in Match Ups Multi

There's no doubt that Mohammed Kudus is an excellent addition to Tottenham's starting XI and that he will eventually get among the goals, and most likely plenty of them. But for now he's playing a starring role for Spurs as a goal creator rather than a goalscorer.

Kudus ranks sixth in the Premier League's chances created list this season, and only Jack Grealish (4) has more assists than Kudus (3) in the opening five games. And that appears to be his focus because when it comes to shots and shots on target he compares poorly with some of his teammates.

Mohammed Kudus

5 appearances for Tottenham this season

Shots

8

Shots per 90

1.6

Shots on Target

1

Shots on Target per 90

0.2

Chances Created

11

Chances Created per 90

2.2

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In 441 minutes of Premier League action Kudus has managed just eight shots at goal with just one of those being on target. Xavi Simons has had four shots at goal in just 100 minutes in a Tottenham shirt, Richarlison has managed five shots on target in his 348 league minutes, and Lucas Bergvall has registered three shots on target in 289 minutes of action.

So there are plenty of players to take Kudus on with using Betfair's new Match Ups Multi product, where you can back players from either side to out-perform another player in terms of shots, shots at goal, goals, assists and fouls.

Kudus, Richarlison and Bergvall didn't start in Tottenham's 3-0 EFL Cup win in midweek which strongly suggests they'll all start against Wolves, while Simons was excellent and registered three shots in 61 minutes before being substituted.

I'm going to presume that Simons will start against Wolves - he's too good not to - so I'll do a double on Simons to have more shots than Kudus and Richarlison to have more shots on target than Kudus. It's not a huge price, but the early season stats certain suggest it's a big player.

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