Tuesday Premier League Tips: Goals at Brighton, Palace and Wolves followed by a hefty Chelsea win | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Tuesday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Tuesday...

Brighton v Bournemouth (Tuesday, 19:30)

Brighton look a little short here at 2.20. They've only won 10 of 26 games (38%), including just four of 12 at home (33%), yet the odds suggest they have a 45% chance of winning. And yet they face a Bournemouth side who have only lost seven of 26 games (27%), including only three of 13 away from home (23%). I couldn't be backing Brighton at the prices but that doesn't necessarily mean I want to side with Bournemouth in some way, as I think there's a better bet between these two.

This match features two of my favourite sides for backing games with goals because they are both capable of clearing goal lines by themselves. This is perfectly encapsulated by some of Brighton's recent results where they've beaten Southampton 4-0 and Chelsea 3-0 but lost 7-0 to high flying Nottingham Forest! A Forest side that Bournemouth beat 5-0. Lots goals but no Both Teams to Score winners and that's why Overs is better than backing Yes.

15 of Brighton's last 22 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (68%) and for Bournemouth 10 of their 13 away games have seen three or more goals (77%), including all of their last eight. Since the beginning of last season with Andoni Iraola's arrival, all three meetings between the two saw Over 2.5 goals winners. Backing Over 2.75 goals means if there's only three goals, half our bet wins and the other half is voided.

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (Tuesday, 19:30)

The bet I like here is goals. Champions League side Aston Villa are just two points off a return to the competition for next season yet they have the seventh worst defensive record in the league! They've conceded 41 goals in 27 games (1.52 per-game) and only managed a staggering three clean sheets in the Premier League all season (11%). As a result, over 2.5 goals have been successful in 18 of their 27 matches (67%) with an even higher win rate away from with nine of 12 winners (75%).

After a slow start to the season, Crystal Palace have been great since the end of October, collecting the sixth most points in the league in that period - more than the likes of Chelsea and Man City. They've lost just four of their last 18, scoring two or more goals in nine of those. Five of their last six games have seen over 2.5 goals and this has been a great matchup for goals since the beginning of last season. Four games across league and cup have all seen three or more goals with a huge 16 goals scored (4.0 per-game). Yet despite all we know here, over/under 2.5 is priced as a 50-50 shot.

Wolves v Fulham (Tuesday, 19:30)

More goals on the agenda here. New Wolves manager Vitor Pereira took over the club on the 19th of December with the team second bottom having picked up just nine points from 16 matches, having only won two, drawn three and lost 11. Despite having scored 24 goals (1.50 per-game) - more than the likes of Nottingham Forest and Newcastle - they'd conceded 40 goals (2.50 per-game) - by far the worst in the division. Fast forward ten games and they've picked up 13 points in his time having won four, drawn one and lost five - the 13th best record in the league during his tenure - to move five points clear of the drop. He's reduced the number they're conceding with 14, though still 1.40 per-game.

It does however mean 19 of their 26 matches this season have seen over 2.5 goals (73%) - only Man City matches have a higher strike rate (76%). And if we remove the matches with red cards where games can become one sided, 18 of 22 have seen over 2.5 (82%). At Molineux, eight of 12 have seen three or more goals.

Fulham have been dangerous in-front of goal recently having scored at least two goals in seven of their last nine matches resulting in eight of their last 13 matches going over 2.5 goals. Since the beginning of last season this has been a great fixture for goals with all three seeing over 2.5 with a grand total of 13 (4.33 per-game).

Chelsea v Southampton (Tuesday, 20:15)

Despite there still being 12 games left, this Southampton side still seem to be trying to beat Derby County's record of the worst ever points total of 11 in 2007/08. The Saints sit on just nine points and under new boss Ivan Juric and have now lost eight of his nine games, meaning overall it's 21 defeats in 26 games this season.

The defence is awful having conceded 61 goals (2.35 per-game) and actually looks to be getting worse under Juric with 25 conceded during his tenure so far (2.78 per-game). It should come as no surprise when they're conceding the most shots in the league (18.0 per-game) and too often it's one way traffic with them having the third fewest shots going the other way (9.5 per-game). Having conceded at least three goals in six of their last seven matches, a pro-Chelsea bet is the way to go here.

Of Chelsea's 12 wins this season, six have been by two or more goals (50%) and that's the way to play this one. They've already destroyed this Southampton side 5-1 at St. Mary's having 26 shots to six and winning the expected goals battle by a huge 5.43 - 1.56. We'll get our money back if Chelsea only win by two.

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