What Manchester City’s unpredictability reveals about their Champions League hopes | OneFootball

It is the sort of result that can mark a team out as potential champions of Europe. Beating Real Madrid in the Bernabeu, at the least, could offer an indication a team is equipped to defeat them in a final, semi-final or quarter-final. Though, more than most, Pep Guardiola can testify to Real’s winning habit when the stakes are highest.

His reaction to Manchester City’s 2-1 triumph in the Spanish capital was to argue they would have to play better in the knockout stages of the competition. At least now, with their manager thinking they only require four points to be fast-tracked to the last 16, they should be spared the play-off round that brought their elimination by Real last season. Yet if Guardiola may be football’s most famous perfectionist, it could have been the realist in him who spoke when he said: “In the last stages, you have to be better.”

Because a reading of the scoreline and the table could suggest City, champions as recently as 2023, fourth in the standings now, rank among the favourites. Guardiola felt the game offered another impression. Real were superior at 1-0; would City have come back from 2-0?

An evening that became a triumph of a makeshift full-back for City started off with the tormenting of two. Nico O’Reilly was their first scorer, but only after being troubled by Rodrygo. Matheus Nunes looked outclassed by Vinicius Junior. Guardiola won the Champions League by repurposing centre-backs as full-backs, in Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji, but they brought a defensive solidity.

Yet now he has full-backs who lack the same strengths and a side whose resilience varies by the game. In the last fortnight alone, City have given up a 2-0 lead to Leeds and conceded four times to Fulham. They also withstood Real’s late onslaught in a manner which reflected well on them. But if defence can win competitions, City have conceded 11 goals in their last six matches.

There is an entertaining element to Guardiola’s new-look side but they lack the control of their predecessors. Guardiola has overhauled his midfield but without bringing in anyone who kept the ball with the natural assurance of Ilkay Gundogan or David Silva. The summer signings Rayan Cherki and Tijjani Reijnders are in their own private contest for the final spot in the midfield quintet, but they are more dribbler and runner respectively.

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Erling Haaland could be crucial to Man City’s success in the latter stages of the Champions League (Reuters)

Guardiola has fashioned a dynamic midfield, but not the most secure. The balance has been tilted as Jeremy Doku has kicked on and Phil Foden staged his personal renaissance. There are times when Nico Gonzalez can seem overworked at the base of the midfield. It adds to the entertainment, but reduces City’s ability to take the sting out of a game with perpetual possession. The flying full-backs are better when they fly forward than when they have to go back.

And yet, the counter-argument could go, City have a spine comprising Champions League winners: Erling Haaland, Foden, Bernardo Silva, Rodri and Ruben Dias collected their medals with City, while Gianluigi Donnarumma’s came in the Paris Saint-Germain goal. The newer and less experienced players tend to be found down the sides of the team.

Part of Guardiola’s belief that City will be better in the spring knockouts may have rested with Rodri. Even as his absence stretches on, even as it seems dangerous to rely on his fitness, there is at least the possibility he will be available and in Ballon d’Or-winning form for some of the matches that matter most. Gonzalez has been one of the season’s plus points, but he is not Rodri.

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Without Rodri, Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled to keep control through possession (AFP via Getty)

Another reason for optimism lies in Haaland. Only Kylian Mbappe has more goals in the competition this season. It is an oversimplification to say that City beat Real because Haaland played and Mbappe didn’t; equally, when the Norwegian was benched, they lost to Bayer Leverkusen. Which, while it came with a second-choice side, was still an illustration that City are much closer to the pack than they were in their prime.

That added layer of unpredictability means that City’s progress to the quarter-finals could be less of the formality that it always seemed, until last season. The realist in Guardiola was aware, too, that Real suffered from injuries on Wednesday. It would, in all probability, be a very different team he would face were they to reconvene in the final.

Far more than City, Real are the masters of getting there. City have often been described as the best team in Europe in seasons when they did not win the Champions League and, in some cases, when Real did. Now they are not the best team in Europe or, probably, one of the top few. And yet, if they can beat Real in the Bernabeu, it may raise the possibility of what they could do.