When would Newcastle United realistically sack Eddie Howe? | OneFootball

It feels like it’s five seconds to midnight on Eddie Howe’s Newcastle doomsday clock but realistically, when would the club sack him?

Howe has a lot of credit in the bank having inherited a side in 19th and from manager-turned-cabbage-target Steve Bruce – who represented the defining image of the final days of Mike Ashley – and turning them into top-half contenders.

He has twice secured Champions League qualification and he won a cup too, something no Newcastle boss can say since Doug Livingstone of the 1950s. But modern football waits for no man and a team in 12th, looking like it’s out of ideas, has many wondering if Howe has reached his ceiling.

For now, the club has been quiet on their thoughts on the matter but what scenario may force their hands?

Newcastle out of European football contention

Mathematics have often proved to be the bane of a manager’s existence; when something is no longer mathematically possible, higher-ups can feel justified in making a decision.

Newcastle’s goal this season would have been to retain their Champions League spot, but that is already looking like an impossible target.

In years gone by, it was easy to know where you stood as just the top four would qualify for the European tournament, but UEFA’s expansion has meant there are more spots available.

Last season, England received five spots due to topping the coefficient table and are on course to do so again this year. Currently, Chelsea occupy fifth and are 10 points ahead of Newcastle.

But while Champions League football is by far the most lucrative of the European competitions, qualification for the other two may save Howe.

England will get two Europa League spots – one for finishing in the best place outside of the Champions League spots and one for the FA Cup winners – while a Conference League spot goes to the Carabao Cup winners.

As it is first-place Arsenal facing second-place Manchester City in the Carabao cup final, the Conference League spot will almost certainly go to the next-highest ranked team that have not qualified for UEFA competitions, which could be seventh.

That then makes Newcastle’s chance of qualifying for Europe a little more realistic, with Brentford currently in that spot on 39 points, six points ahead of Newcastle.

Whether this is enough to save Howe’s job depends on how much credit he has in the bank with the owners. Howe has already survived a seventh-place finish after qualifying for the Champions League, but the board may have expected the club to have moved on since then.

The large number of European places available means Newcastle may not be eliminated from contention until very late on, but being mathematically out of the Champions League could come much quicker, leaving Howe with only one other option…

Newcastle United out of the Champions League

You get the sense that for as long as Newcastle remain in the Champions League, Howe’s job is safe regardless of how poor they are in the Premier League.

Success in Europe can often paper over the cracks of domestic troubles (just ask Ange Postecoglou) and can provide a stay of execution.

In the Champions League, Newcastle have looked better – with Anthony Gordon explaining that teams coming onto them more has allowed the Magpies to exploit their quick wingers in a way that the low blocks of Premier League sides don’t – but Newcastle still finished the lowest-placed English side and the only one needing a play-off to make it through to the Round of 16.

The draw was kind to Newcastle, pitching them against Qarabag, but advancement will then see Newcastle face either of Chelsea or Barcelona, two teams you would expect to beat this version of the Magpies.

An exit from the Champions League may well then prompt the board into action.

At the end of the season in preparation for the World Cup

The good news for Newcastle is this is not Thomas Frank levels of disaster. Newcastle will not get relegated. They are, for now, still in two cup competitions and there is a realistic way they end the season on a positive.

For those reasons, it would seem likely that barring a total collapse of form, Howe will at least be given until the end of the season but unfortunately for him, that is when more balanced, long-term decisions are made.

It is a World Cup summer and with that inevitably brings the sudden availability of a lot of top-class managers. Thomas Tuchel, Carlo Ancelotti and Julian Nagelsmann are all top-level coaches who could feasibly be out of a job come the end of July and, even if they don’t get Champions League football, Newcastle would back themselves as one of the more attractive prospects in Europe.

If Howe does make it to the summer and one of those elite managers indicates a willingness to come to Tyneside, it may be thank you and goodbye.

If the majority of Newcastle fans turn on him

As the full-time whistle rang out on Saturday, Howe was confronted with a new experience in his managerial reign: boos from your own fans.

Even in the dire days of his Bournemouth career, not too many Cherries fans vocalised their displeasure but the Geordie faithful, or at least some of them, are beginning to turn.

The boos came after a 3-2 loss to Brentford which saw three more points added to make a total of 19 dropped by Newcastle from winning positions so far this year.

Howe took the blame, saying no one puts more pressure on him than himself, and even if most of the crowd were trying to cancel out their fellow fans by singing Howe’s name, the board will have noticed the first audible sign of fans’ discontent.

Fans do not make boardroom decisions but they certainly impact them. Boos become protests which become not buying tickets or merchandise and soon your cash cow is not producing as much lucrative milk as you may have liked.

For now, Howe seems to still have the confidence of the majority of the Newcastle crowd but unless he bucks the trend, the boo boys may have a lot of new members.