Winning might not be enough: All Sporting’s Champions League scenarios | OneFootball

With at least the qualification for the play-off already secured, Sporting takes the field tonight in the Basque Country with the goal of achieving direct qualification for the round of 16. To do so, they need to finish the Champions League group stage among the top eight. Currently, they are in 10th place with 13 points, the same as the sixth-placed team, PSG, who were defeated at Alvalade in the last matchday.

The scenario for the lions is clear: they need to win and wait for favorable results from other matches, as they do not solely depend on their own outcome. Mathematically, the team can win and still be relegated to the play-off, or draw and secure direct passage. Even a significant victory in Bilbao does not automatically ensure the objective, as several teams with the same 13 points - there are eight between the sixth and 13th places - can also achieve large victories. The exception lies in the match between PSG and Newcastle, where only one can reach the 16 points that Sporting will achieve in case of victory.

Opta's supercomputer, specialized in statistical analysis in football, has run thousands of simulations of this matchday's games, based on betting odds and its own team strength ranking. According to this model, Sporting has about a 30% chance of winning in Bilbao and a 23.9% chance of securing direct qualification for the round of 16, a value that also includes the remote possibility of qualifying with a draw. In that scenario, it would be necessary, for example, for at least one of Chelsea or Barcelona to lose and for none of the teams immediately behind in the standings, with 13 and 12 points, to win.

In general, the simulations indicate that, with a victory, Sporting secures direct passage in more than 75% of the scenarios. Still, it is considered likely that some team with 16 points will have to play the play-off. The lions currently have a better goal difference than Manchester City, Atlético de Madrid, and Atalanta, but besides surpassing the loser of the PSG vs. Newcastle duel, they would also need to overcome another direct competitor in the standings.

Sporting returns to the field this Wednesday, January 28th, against Athletic Bilbao. The match, counting for the eighth and final round of the Champions League, against the team led by Ernesto Valverde, will be played at 20:00, in San Mamés.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇵🇹 here.