A Leeds United fan loses his mind asking: Am I being ridiculous for thinking we’re going down? | OneFootball

Why am I like this as a football fan? Why does my brain immediately jump to the worst possible outcome the second things stop going perfectly? Leeds United could be ten points clear and cruising – and I’d still be doing the maths on how it could all unravel.

Which is why I need to ask a question that feels ridiculous even as I type it: Am I completely losing the plot, or should Leeds actually be the favourites to go down?

The bookmakers’ odds vary but uniformly place Leeds as the outsiders in a four-horse race, with considerably longer odds than West Ham, Spurs and Forest. Listen to any podcast or pundit panel and they’ll typically mention Leeds only as a cursory afterthought.

The latest update from OPTA’s Supercomputer has Leeds at just 6.62% likely to be relegated. They think there is almost twice as much of a chance that Tottenham go down (12.30%), with Nottingham Forest (35.08%) and West Ham (46.32%) on another level entirely.

Far be it from me to question the wisdom of football’s data overlords, but that seems wild. Then again, of course it does. I am your classic Fatalistic Football Fan™ with skin in the game. And xN (expected neurosis) presumably doesn’t factor into Opta’s algorithm.

I’m not about to go two-footed into Leeds and claim they’re actually useless donkeys who aren’t fit to wear the badge. Having witnessed three relegations, 18 years out of the Premier League and three in League One, I’m well-versed in hating rubbish Leeds teams. This isn’t a hit piece.

I really like these players. There’s no lack of effort or endeavour. They aren’t playing out-of-this-world Bielsaball, but there’s a lot of satisfaction in watching Daniel Farke’s Big B*stards FC duke it out.

The last time my club reached an FA Cup quarter-final, I was in Year 7. I am now a balding dad with a mortgage. This is a very good Leeds team. Among the best I’ve seen.

A case in point was their most recent game away to Crystal Palace, equal parts plucky and proficient, in which they became the first Premier League side on record to deny the opposition a shot on target across an entire second half while down to 10 men.

The display stood in stark contrast to the last time Leeds faced Palace in a relegation run-in, an infamous hinge point in the club’s shambolic return to the Championship in 2023.

On that occasion, under Javi Gracia (how very Watfordy), Leeds produced a decent and dominant first-half display. But a lapse on the stroke of half-time prompted a spectacular collapse. They ended up losing 5-1 at home, looking so shellshocked in the second half that conspiracy theories within the online fanbase persist to this day. Something must have gone on in that dressing room.

According to those who were there, nothing out of the ordinary happened. That was just that Leeds team. Gutless. Incompetent. Infuriating. The remaining players from the Bielsa era (Illan Meslier, Luke Ayling, Jack Harrison, Patrick Bamford) had lost all their superpowers and the subsequent additions (Marc Roca, Robin Koch, Weston McKennie, Luis Sinisterra) proved completely unfit for the fight.

This time around, a missed penalty was followed swiftly by an outrageously harsh red card. Stroke of half-time. The 30th game of the season. Crystal Palace. To paraphrase the creepy dream giant from Twin Peaks… Is it happening again?

No. This is a different Leeds. They were unruffled by the setback. Undeterred by any sense of injustice. They dug deep, defended well and deservedly took another home another point to edge towards safety.

Such a spirited display shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The champions elect (we can call them that now, let’s be honest) are the only team to have comprehensively outplayed Leeds this season. Man City were pushed really hard home and away. Farke’s side have as many victories as defeats against the chasing pack for the Champions League – Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Aston Villa: one win, one loss, five draws. Not too shabby.

Leeds have only lost four of 17 matches since Farke’s masterstroke of switching to a back three in early December. Two of those were against Arsenal and Man City; another in a seven-goal thriller away to Newcastle in which they took the lead three times. Leeds sit 12th in the table since they adopted their current system, six points clear of the bottom three.

And the data backs up the eye test. Leeds are 11th for xG, 11th for ‘expected points’ and 15th for xG against. Per the underlying numbers, they’re performing like a solidly midtable side.

Only the small margins have stopped Leeds from currently sitting pretty, on the beach with 40 points, like Sunderland. For what it’s worth, Leeds’ underlying metrics are considerably healthier than the surely-safe Black Cats.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s missed penalty at Selhurst Park. Gabriel Gudmundsson’s freak own goal against Fulham. A penalty not given against Sunderland that the KMI Panel have since admitted was a mistake. Rare defensive lapses that cost leads against Bournemouth, Manchester United and Aston Villa.

Leeds haven’t been lucky to be where they are. With the notable exception of a (hilarious) robbery at Stamford Bridge, they’ve been good value for pretty much every point they’ve taken and could have had a whole lot more.

That is a lot of words to say that Leeds should be fine. Maintain their current levels, get the points to show for it, and they’ll be in the Premier League again next season. So why am I still so worried about relegation?

First up, Leeds are only three points clear of the drop zone. They are, by any reasonable measure, in the mix.

All it takes is one weekend of results going a certain way, and there will be an immense vibe shift, an almighty meltdown on social media, presumably underlined by a dramatic shift in the bookies’ odds and OPTA probabilities. All this stuff can serve as a safety blanket in the good times, but it’s capricious by football’s inherent nature.

Much has been made of Leeds’ record ‘under the lights’, and for good reason. Five of their seven wins this season have been in evening kick-offs at Elland Road. But after a long unbeaten record on such occasions under Farke, Leeds have lost their last two to Man City and Sunderland. Has their X Factor gone?

On the flipside, Leeds have only won once away from home all season. And that at Molineux, when Wolves were at the peak of their ineptitude. They still have to go to Tottenham and West Ham – gulp – on the final day.

There have been a lot of hard-earned draws. Only Bournemouth have more. Respect the point and all that, but could they prove the silent killer? Spurs haven’t won a league game in 2026 but they somehow remain in touching distance. West Ham have won twice as many games this calendar year.

The fatalist in me fears Leeds have missed their chance to take Sunderland’s lead and will be punished for not getting the points on the board early enough. Expected Goals are all well and good, but will they regress to the mean or is the underperformance simply reflective of what Leeds are?

Calvert-Lewin has consistently struggled with finishing for years. He’s scored one in his last nine. And it’s zero goals from open play in Leeds’ last four outings. Karl Darlow has been reasonably good, but is he anyone’s idea of a Premier League goalkeeper? Palace was only Leeds’ third clean sheet since August.

Leeds have the easiest run-in on paper, but for a certified Negative Nancy like myself, every remaining fixture is a jump scare. Out-of-form, injury-hit Sunderland at home was proof that “should wins” are anything but.

Brentford could finish in the top four. Leeds lost to Burnley in the reverse fixture. Wolves are taking points from top teams and might be the best-ever side to finish bottom. Manchester United are the league’s form team, and Leeds haven’t beaten them in yonks.

Looking outside of our own house heightens the anxiety. I can’t help but feel like people aren’t making enough of how Leeds’ direct competitors were in a different stratosphere in the relegation odds back in August. They’re all established Premier League sides who have a head start with years of consolidation.

West Ham haven’t looked like a relegation side in months. They have a quality coach and made season-changing January additions like Axel Disasi and Taty Castellanos. Leeds signed Facundo Buonanotte, who at this point might as well be invisible.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Hammers were unfortunate not to see out wins against Chelsea and Manchester United. They have a tough run-in, but have demonstrated they can take points from anyone; just ask Pep Guardiola.

Nottingham Forest are a basket case and changing managers three times screams relegation, but they finished one point off Champions League qualification last term and kept the core of that squad together; Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White are exceptional footballers.

They’ve scored from just one of their last 99 shots at the City Ground and surely that isn’t sustainable – particularly with a proven Premier League striker like Chris Wood reportedly on the cusp of a long-awaited return. They remain erratic but strong performances against Fenerbahce, Liverpool and Man City hint that they could be turning a corner.

Tottenham have been an unmitigated disaster of late. They could give us the Premier League’s biggest shock relegation since Leeds themselves in 2004. But all footballing logic dictates that money wins out and there’s a reason that such sides with expensively-built squads and comparatively massive wage bills are usually insulated from relegation worries.

Spurs’ long, medium and short-term trends are all shocking. But maybe the Too Good To Go Down adage has something to it. Last season, they won the Europa League after putting all their eggs in that basket. Now they only have survival to focus on.

Their injury crisis is alleviating. Leeds lad Archie Gray is really coming into his own. Xavi Simons might not be what you want in a relegation scrap, but he has a pedigree Leeds can only dream of. Richarlison has been here before with Everton. Their club captain helped deliver Argentina a World Cup. He knows pressure.

Save for freak goalkeeping errors (from a player who surely won’t feature again), Spurs actually held their own against Atletico Madrid. They deservedly took a point away from Anfield. Suddenly, it looks like Igor Tudor might not just be Felix Magath for the throw-in-coach era.

Two of the three spots might be sealed, but this is the most interesting relegation battle in years. Fans of all four clubs in the mire have strong reasons to be either optimistic or pessimistic, depending on their disposition.

I’m not blinkered enough to think there’s only one way this goes. Leeds have done enough to earn my trust and for me to get behind them. But it means suppressing the part of my brain that assumes football will always find a way to break my heart.