Blackburn vs Southampton Match Preview: Can Either Side Regain Form? | OneFootball

Southampton are set to make the south-to-north switch as they head to Lancashire, facing relegation-threatened Blackburn. Neither side has settled thus far, but why is this upcoming fixture crucial for both teams – Will Blackburn capitalise on goal-shy Southampton, or can the Saints finally discover the right balance between attack and defence they so desperately need?

Current Form

Sitting 23rd in the league, Blackburn are one of three teams without a win in their past five. Their one draw, in a tight encounter against Stoke, has been accompanied by conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game in four losses. With just seven points and a goal difference of -8, Blackburn will be desperate to improve their home record this weekend, having collected only a single point at Ewood Park so far.

Since their 2-1 victory over Sheffield United, the Saints have failed to win, managing to gain just two points. Several points dropped have come after surrendering the lead. Two wins. Twelve points. Eleven games. These figures highlight significant problems for Southampton’s promotion aims. Despite creating the second-highest xG (Expected Goals) in the league, they’ve severely underperformed by almost nine goals, underlining a major scoring worry at St. Mary’s this season.

What’s Going On At Blackburn?

Last season, Blackburn just fell short of the playoffs, being placed seventh with 66 points. If they were to continue their current form, they’d have 32 points in comparison. While the Championship doesn’t work like that, it’s a huge concern, as if results don’t pick up, they could be stuck in a relegation dogfight.

Rovers are a defensively orientated side under manager Valerién Ismaël. Amongst other sides, they have the most tackles and the fourth most interceptions per match. However, they’ve conceded 16 from an xG conceded of 11, highlighting that fortune hasn’t gone their way thus far, similar to opponents Southampton.

They operate in a 3/5 back, constantly aiming to hit teams on the transition, utilising crosses to attack — averaging 6 per 90 minutes (1st). This is reinforced by their lack of pressing, averaging 13th in possessions won within the final third per match. 

Their shooting metrics have been consistently poor, made worse by the absence of Todd Cantwell, their highest-averaging contributor in shots on target. With only 3 shots on target per match, their main hope will be to capitalise on Southampton’s defensive mistakes with the limited, but inevitable, chances that come their way.

Is Last Season Still Affecting Southampton?

The Saints have matched last season’s points tally (12), but familiar issues persist despite playing a division lower. Defensive fragility, evident even during their 2023/24 promotion campaign, is creeping back. Midweek’s game against Bristol City perfectly illustrated their struggles, with three avoidable goals conceded from an xG of 1.6.

Will Still’s side created more chances in the match, registering a higher xG of 2.20. Yet a lacklustre second half — a recurring theme this season — ultimately cost them.

Confidence appears low at St. Mary’s, with players hesitant to take risks, which ironically breeds errors itself. New signings have shown relative promise, especially Brazilian Leo Scienza, who has already averaged the second most successful dribbles per 90 for the South Coast side, but it hasn’t been enough to lift the squad collectively.

Maintaining high possession isn’t Still’s goal; purposeful control is — something the Saints are slowly learning. This is a consequence of previous managerial philosophies, such as under Russell Martin, and will take time to instil. But with one of the division’s most expensive squads, will the Belgian-born coach have much more time before frustration kicks in from both the fans and the board?

Preview

Injuries & Suspensions

Blackburn

Southampton

Manager Quotes

Valerien Ismael on his side’s mentality: “We must make sure our heads are right for Saturday. We are not scoring, and we’re conceding goals, which shows it has affected the confidence of the players. The mental side is one thing; we have performed well. The result feeds the confidence of the team, the players, the fans. We are not winning, so it becomes complicated for everyone.”

Will Still on Blackburn’s similarities: They’ve changed the system in the last couple of games and changed it in the game against Sheffield. I think it looks incredibly similar to us. They’ve got really good players. They’ve got a great coach, and they’ve probably been as unlucky as we have.

Predicted Lineups

Blackburn (3-4-1-2): Toth; Miller, Wharton, McLoughlin; Alebiosu, Tronstad, Gardner-Hickman, Hedges; Morishita; Ohashi, Gudjohnsen

Southampton (3-4-3): McCarthy; Edwards, Wood, Harwood-Bellis; Fraser, Charles, Downes, Manning; Azaz, Scienza; Armstrong

Predicted Scoreline

It’s a clash between two sides struggling mentally at this stage of the season. Neither has found a consistent rhythm nor looked defensively solid enough to silence their upcoming opposition.

With the Saints’ attacking threat led by former Blackburn talisman Adam Armstrong, much of the responsibility for goals will fall on him — particularly against a Rovers side that have conceded double the amount they have scored. Southampton took four points off Blackburn last time round and will be aiming to bounce back after their humiliating loss to Bristol City in midweek. Given Southampton’s chance creation advantage and both teams’ defensive struggles, a narrow Saints victory seems most probable.