Bleak Champions League outlook: Bayern, Dortmund and co face tough odds | OneFootball

Four Bundesliga clubs are starting the 2025/26 Champions League season – but, according to a recent data forecast, the expectations vary greatly. While Bayern has a good chance of making it through the league phase, Frankfurt and Leverkusen will have to stretch themselves considerably. Things look especially bleak for Eintracht Frankfurt.

The data model from Football Meets Data gives the German record champions the best prospects for success among the four Bundesliga clubs. Accordingly, the probability that FCB will make it through the league phase is a strong 92 percent. However, the chance of a top-8 finish, which would secure direct entry into the knockout phase, is only 41 percent.

This means that while Bayern would still be among the big players, they would only be outsiders in the decisive rounds. Given the tough matches against Chelsea, PSG, and Arsenal, this assessment does not seem unrealistic.

BVB and Leverkusen with similar odds

Behind Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen are almost neck and neck. According to the calculations, BVB has a 74 percent chance of making it into the top 24. However, the prospects for direct qualification to the knockout round look weak: the model gives the Black and Yellows only a 17 percent chance.

Leverkusen also has a solid 77 percent chance of making it through the league phase. But, similar to BVB, the leap into the top 8 is extremely unlikely at just 18 percent. For the Werkself, this means: progressing is possible, but according to the statistics, there’s not enough for big dreams.

Things get really tough for Eintracht Frankfurt. The 2022 Europa League winners are given only a 55 percent chance of making the top 24 in the forecast. The odds for a top-8 finish are almost hopeless at 7 percent – only nine clubs in the entire competition fare worse.

This puts SGE clearly in the shadow of their Bundesliga rivals. For Frankfurt, the Champions League will mainly be about delivering surprises and maybe upsetting one or two favorites.

European heavyweights in front

According to the data analysis, the usual suspects have the best chances of a direct jump into the round of 16. Arsenal, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Inter Milan, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Paris Saint-Germain are clearly ahead. All of them have a well over 50 percent probability of making the top 8.

While Bayern, at least on paper, enters the Champions League as the best-positioned German club, Dortmund and Leverkusen will have to settle for outsider chances. For Eintracht Frankfurt, things look even bleaker – SGE is considered a clear underdog.

The new CL season will not be a walk in the park for any Bundesliga club. But especially in the Champions League, one thing is true: statistics are just numbers – in the end, it’s always the form on the day that decides on the pitch.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇩🇪 here.