Brazil vs. Japan Match Preview: Ancelotti Confident but Wary | OneFootball

It has been 24 years since Brazil reached their third consecutive FIFA World Cup Final, edging Germany 2-0 in Yokohama, Japan courtesy of a late brace from Ronaldo. That was the Seleção’s fifth title — two more than any other team at the time — and their second in three attempts. It seemed that the stage was set for Brazil to continue ruling world football with an iron fist.

In contrast to Brazil, who are the sole nation to have competed in all 23 editions of the World Cup, Japan were a novice at that point, having lost all three matches in their maiden tournament in 1998. And in contrast to fellow co-hosts South Korea, who reached the semifinals, Japan were knocked out by eventual bronze medalists Türkiye in the Round of 16.

The Gap has Narrowed

Since then, however, it’s undeniable that the gap between these two cultural giants has narrowed. After exiting the group stage in 2006, Japan would lose on penalties to Paraguay in the Round of 16 in 2010 before suffering another early elimination in 2014.

They looked set to complete their first-ever knockout win in 2018, only to squander a two-goal lead and lose 3-2 to bronze medalists Belgium. Japan would enjoy their best-ever tournament in 2022 after beating former champions Spain and Germany, only to lose on penalties to bronze medalists Croatia in Qatar.

As for Brazil, they’ve made it to just one World Cup semifinal since their famous ‘penta’ in Yokohama, losing 7-1 on home soil to Germany. They’ve also been left in the dust by continental rivals Argentina, having failed to win a single trophy since the 2019 Copa América. It’s precisely why Monday’s encounter in Houston promises to be one of the best match-ups of the tournament.

A Contrast in Coaches

Whereas Japan have been quietly building a long-term project under Hajime Moriyasu since his appointment of 2018, Brazil are just one year removed from the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti, one of the most prestigious managers in football history. Ancelotti is looking to do something that has never been done: win a World Cup as a foreign-born manager.

Brazil’s Path

Brazil started the tournament in fairly underwhelming fashion, conceding early and sharing the spoils with Morocco in a 1-1 draw in New Jersey. Ancelotti decided to make a couple of changes from his team, with Danilo replacing Roger Ibañez at right back and Matheus Cunha filling in for the fairly ineffective Igor Thiago up top.

These changes worked like a charm, with Cunha bagging a brace in a 3-0 win vs. Haiti in Philadelphia. Ancelotti was forced into another change as Raphinha suffered a Grade 1 right hamstring muscle injury. But the entrance of Rayan on the right side of attack helped the Seleção continue pushing for glory, demolishing Scotland 3-0 in Miami to seal the top spot in the group.

Japan’s Path

Japan, meanwhile, entered the tournament on the back of an injury crisis, with star winger Kaoru Mitoma and attacking midfielder Takumi Minamino pulling out with injuries, whilst captain Wataru Endo was also forced to withdraw before eventually retiring from international duty. To compound their woes, Takefusa Kubo has ben absent since injuring his knee vs. the Netherlands.

But the Japan of today is not quite the Japan of 20 years ago: it has a deep arsenal of players who are well-versed in Moriyasu’s style, and they’ve proven that every step of the way. Despite falling behind twice, they pulled off a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in Dallas. Then they thrashed Tunisia 4-0 in Monterrey, followed by a 1-1 draw to Sweden (once again in Dallas). That depth and resilience is why, even with various key players out, Japan could pose a threat to Brazil.

Ancelotti is Wary

“For [Monday’s] match we need many things: mind, heart, a clear idea. We have to be prepared for everything that can happen in a knockout tie, and in a knockout tie many things can happen,” stated Ancelotti in his pre-match press conference. “The team is prepared, motivated, confident, and has done well in the last two matches. The team is ready for anything that can happen.”

“This isn’t a knockout tie, it’s a knockout, nothing more. There is no second leg. Brazil is fortunate to have many experienced players in this regard. In terms of experience, the team is very strong, and the players know how to prepare for a game like this. In that respect, I’m very confident.”

Ancelotti has reason to be wary of Japan’s threat. Back in October, Japan conceded two first-half goals before storming back to a 3-2 win against Brazil in Tokyo. Back then, Brazil were leaking goals for fun, keeping just one clean sheet in eight matches before finally nullifying Haiti and Scotland.

Seleção Still Favored

Brazil, nevertheless, will be favored going into this match thanks in large part to their quality at the back, with Champions League runner-up Gabriel Magalhães partnering Champions League winner Marquinhos in central defense. And even with Raphinha likely to miss out, they still have ample quality in attack to wreak havoc against the Samurai Blue.

Whilst most of the chatter surrounding Brazil in recent weeks has been about Neymar, namely, whether or not he would be selected for the squad, as well as Endrick, Cunha has proven why he is starting up top after scoring in back-to-back matches. And for the first time in his Brazil career, Vinícius Júnior is delivering the same world-class form that very nearly landed him the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

The Real Madrid winger has started the tournament in sensational form with a goal vs. Morocco, a goal and assist vs. Haiti, and a brace vs. Scotland, becoming the third player to win the Man of the Match award in all three World Cup group stage matches after Cristiano Ronaldo (2010) and Lionel Messi (2014). In a tournament where the big names like Erling Haaland and Messi are delivering, he is proving that he is well and truly Brazil’s attacking talisman.

Good things happen to Brazil when their best players perform. Only on three occasions has a Brazil player scored in every single group stage match: Jairzinho (1970), Romário (1994), and Ronaldo and Rivaldo (2002). It’s not a coincidence that on every single one of those occasions, Brazil ended up lifting the trophy at the end of the tournament.

Japan “Will Be at Full Force”

But Japan won’t be going away lightly. They are chameleons who are capable of adapting to their opponent’s strategy and remaining competitive against the very best in the world, as evidenced by their recent wins vs. England and Brazil. And although they may not have one world-class attacker, they nevertheless have a cohesive unit that is capable of soaking up the pressure and threatening on goal.

“All the players will do what they can or the team and contribute,” said Moriyasu in the pre-match press conference. “The team is united and that feeling is getting even stronger now. We feel the match will be very intense. We have a chance and it will be tough… we will be at full force.”

Moriyasu’s side have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches thanks in large part to Zion Suzuki, who, after being scapegoated for Japan’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 Asian Cup, has shown plenty of signs of his quality and established himself as one of the best goalkeepers in the tournament.

Together, Japan will be looking to pull off their greatest-ever victory and claim the knockout round win that has forever eluded them. But with Vinícius and Cunha in electrifying form, and Brazil’s other starters starting to click on all cylinders, it certainly won’t be easier said than done. We’re expecting an even-keeled affair, one that will likely end in a Brazil win.

Predicted Starting XIs:

Japan: Suzuki; Ito, Tomiyasu, Itakura; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Kamada, Maeda; Ueda

Brazil: Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Santos; Guimaraes, Casemiro; Rayan, Paqueta, Vinicius Jr; Cunha

Score: Brazil 2-1 Japan (extra time)