Brighton v Bournemouth: Back a home win and at least three goals for the Seagulls | OneFootball

Brighton v BournemouthMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Opportunity to climb the table awaits

Just three points separate the Premier League's south coast rivals going into Matchday 22, and although both Brighton and Bournemouth occupy positions in the bottom half of the table they are still within touching distance - in terms of the points gap - of the European qualifying positions.

Behind the top three in the table, the Premier League has been as unpredictable for as long as I can remember with teams showing remarkable inconsistency, going on runs of form - good or bad - that came completely out of the blue.

Two good examples are Fulham and Brentford. The Cottagers were hurtling towards the relegation zone after losing seven of 10 in the league, but they went on a six-game unbeaten run and sat ninth in the table going into the weekend round of fixtures. The Bees were among the favourites to go down and started the season off relatively slowly, but they also went six games unbeaten and were up to fifth after Matchday 21.

Bournemouth themselves have already enjoyed sitting in the lofty position of second in the table. That was after Matchday 9, fast forward 11 games - 11 games in which they failed to win any - and they'd dropped to 15th!

At least the Cherries ended that long sequence of games without a win by beating Tottenham 3-2 last time, a victory that came courtesy of a stoppage time winner from their then star man Antoine Semenyo, who has now left the club to join title-chasing Manchester City. It' a huge gap to fill, and it remains to be seen how boss Andoni Iraola goes about it.

As for Brighton, they have endured a mini poor run of their own, going six games without a win before beating Burnley recently. They're now four games unbeaten in all competitions and Fabian Hurzeler's men should be full of confidence after two trips to Manchester in which they drew with City in the league before beating United in the third round of the FA Cup.

Home win stands out as a cracking bet

On the Betfair Sportsbook's Match Odds market Brighton are a shade of odds-on to take all three points, available to back at 20/23, and that's a price I'm happy to put up as my first, and main selection.

My thinking is that the Seagulls are in better form, and with home advantage I expected to see them trading at a slightly shorter price than they are.

Their last game at the Amex Stadium was a thoroughly deserved win over Burnley, and while you could argue that it was 'only second-bottom Burnley' it was a dominant performance that should have resulted in a wider margin of victory.

And then there' those two confidence-boosting results in Manchester, with their win over United standing out given that Hurzeler rotated his starting XI yet Brighton still looked by far the better team.

Although Bournemouth beat Spurs in their last league game, it's hard to ignore the dreadful run of form they were on prior to that victory. Iraola's men went on a run of 11 games without a win and quite alarmingly, in their six away games in that sequence they conceded a total of 20 goals!

In fact, including last week's defeat on penalties away to Newcastle in the FA Cup, the Cherries have now conceded at least two goals in their last nine away matches, and in 11 road trips this season they've conceded an average of 2.9 goals per game!

Consider that Bournemouth no longer have Semenyo, consider also that Brighton have beaten the Cherries in their last four meetings at the Amex, and it all adds up to me believing that at very close to even money, the home win is well worth a wager here. If you disagree you can back Bournemouth to win at 14/5 while the Draw price can be backed at 11/4.

Below you can see a chart showing the percentage chance for each outcome using the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

Home goals and one for Mitoma solid Bet Builder options

If you're looking for a bet at slightly bigger odds then home goals for Brighton definitely have to be on your radar. Bournemouth commenced this season by conceding four at Liverpool, and as I've mentioned above they've continued to leak goals away from home.

The Cherries sit 17th in the Premier League Away table with just one win in 10 games, but in that time they've conceded an incredible 29 goals. They've conceded 23 goals in their last even Premier League away games for an average of 3.29 per game, and in six of those last seven away matches they conceded at least three goals.

You can back them to concede at least three goals again here - via the Over 2.5 Home Goals option - at 2/1 and that just seems like a perfectly good price to me. In fact I'm making it my second bet of the game.

If you want to push the boat out a little further than you can add Kaoru Mitoma to score anytime to the Brighton goals bet.

The talented winger has scored more goals against Bournemouth (5) than he has against any other Premier League team and on Monday night he will be playing his 100th game in the competition making him just the third Japanese player to play 100+ games in the Premier League, so he certainly has something to celebrate.

Brighton to score Over 2.5 Goals and Mitoma to Score Anytime pays out at just over 9/2. In terms of stats it looks a decent bet, but I'm just a tad worried about Mitoma's form of late so I won't put it up as a tip.

Do remember though, should you have the above bet and Mitoma gets taken off before scoring a goal then your bet continues and will roll on to the player that replaces Mitoma thanks to Betfair's Safe Sub.