Bundesliga Tips: Bayern and Dortmund could both slip up | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Marco Rose is slowly turning Leipzig's domestic season around

It's the final matchday of 2024 in the Bundesliga, and TV commentator Kevin Hatchard has a pick for games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday...

Red Bulls can push Bayern close

Bayern Munich v RB LeipzigFriday 20 December, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Bayern suffered their first league defeat under Vincent Kompany last weekend, as they fell foul of a Jae-Sung Lee brace in a 2-1 defeat at Mainz. It means that going into this weekend the Rekordmeister are only four points ahead of the reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen, and they are six ahead of Friday night's opponents RB Leipzig.

The recent loss of Harry Kane to injury is clearly a blow, but it's the dip in form for key centre-backs Min-Jae Kim and Dayot Upamecano which has been more concerning. Bayern haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games, having managed seven shut-outs in a row before that.

Leipzig have lost all six of their Champions League matches, and are already out of that competition with two games to spare, but they have the weapons to hurt Bayern, especially given the high defensive line the Bavarian giants employ. Star strikers Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda both netted in last weekend's impressive 2-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt, and both have the speed to cause Bayern an issue or two here.

Belgian international Openda has netted four goals across his last four appearances, while Slovenia's Sesko has fired in three goals across his last four games. Although Leipzig are still missing the influence of creative fulcrum Xavi because of injury, those strikers mean Marco Rose's men are always in with a shout.

Leipzig have actually won on two of their last three visits to the Allianz Arena, and I'll happily give them a +1.5 start on the Asian Handicap here at 2.12. We only lose if Bayern win by two goals or more, and Bayern haven't been beating the big hitters. They lost and drew in two games at home to Leverkusen this term, they drew at Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund and in the Champions League they lost at Barcelona and Aston Villa.

Wolves lying in wait for injury-plagued Dortmund

Wolfsburg v Borussia DortmundSunday 22 December, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

When your centre-back pairing is a converted midfielder who is out of form and a guy who is playing through the pain of an ankle ligament injury, you're in trouble, and that was the case when Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 with Hoffenheim last weekend. Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck failed to prevent the visitors from snatching a late leveller, as former BVB winger Jacob Bruun Larsen found the net.

That means Dortmund have won just two of their last seven competitive games, and I don't fancy them at all at Wolfsburg this weekend. Firstly, Nuri Sahin's side is yet to pick up a single away win in the league this term, and they haven't yet gone to Bayern, Leverkusen, Frankfurt or Leipzig.

Then you look at the fact that Wolfsburg knocked Dortmund out of the Pokal this season with a hard-fought 1-0 extra-time win, and that since then Die Wölfe have been flying. Yes, they lost 3-2 at Freiburg last weekend in a cracker, but overall they have won six of their last eight competitive matches.

With Ralph Hasenhüttl's men in great shape and Dortmund still suffering from a glut of injury problems, I'll back the hosts +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.94. If the home side wins we get a full pay-out at nearly evens, but if the game is drawn we still get a half-win.

Kiel can at least produce gesture of defiance

Holstein Kiel v AugsburgSaturday 21 December, 14:30

They aren't bottom of the table, but Holstein Kiel look ill-equipped for life in the Bundesliga in their first top-flight campaign of the modern era. They lack Bundesliga experience apart from notable exceptions like Lewis Holtby, and the defensive side of their game has been a shambles. To make matters worse, goalkeeper Timon Weiner is having a nightmare - according to official Bundesliga data, Weiner has the worst post-shot xG differential in the division, and has conceded five more goals than he should have.

However, even though Kiel are dreadful at the back, they have at least scored in ten of their 14 league matches this term, and they should get chances against an Augsburg team that is excellent at home but poor on the road. FCA haven't kept a clean sheet on the road in the league since early March, and even that was against hapless Darmstadt.

I think BTTS is generously priced here at 1.8.

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