Champions League permutations: What Liverpool need to qualify for last-16 knockout stage | OneFootball

Reds have destiny in their own hands and a favourable final league phase fixture

Liverpool are back in Champions League action tonight.

Liverpool may have fallen short of the standards set in the Premier League this season, but they have generally impressed in Europe thus far.

Keen to go further this time around, this competition - along with the FA Cup - represents the Reds’ most realistic chances of claiming silverware this season and history suggests a more concerted push for European glory is possible.

Liverpool sit fourth in the Champions League table heading into tonight’s action, having won five of their opening seven games.

They lost away at Galatasaray and at home to PSV Eindhoven, but have otherwise impressed, with 1-0 wins over Real Madrid and Inter Milan surely their standout performances.

On Wednesday night, Liverpool host Qarabag in their final game of the league phase with progression to the knockout rounds already guaranteed.

Teams who finish in the top eight of the table will go straight into the round of 16, which begins on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.

What do Liverpool need to qualify for Champions League last-16?

If Liverpool beat Qarabag: A place in the top eight will be guaranteed.

If Liverpool draw with Qarabag: A point could be enough, but only on the condition that results from elsewhere go in Liverpool’s favour.

In this scenario they would need Real Madrid, Tottenham, PSG, Chelsea, Barcelona and Manchester City to all fail to win their games - some by a large margin.

If Liverpool lose to Qarabag: The unthinkable! Defeat for the Reds and they would almost certainly have to settle for the knockout phase play-off.

The only scenario where Liverpool can lose and still qualify for the last-16 is if there is a draw between PSG and Newcastle as well as results from elsewhere going in their favour.