Champions League play-off carries an uneasy sense of déjà vu

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The Celtic Star

·13 août 2025

Champions League play-off carries an uneasy sense of déjà vu

For Celtic supporters with longish memories, the build-up to this year’s Champions League play-off round carries an uneasy sense of déjà vu. Brendan Rodgers, second time around, is once again preparing for a defining European tie without the reinforcements he’s been calling for all summer…

The parallels with August 2018 are striking. Then, as now, Celtic were one or two quality signings short. Then, as now, the manager’s warnings about squad strength clashed with a slower, more cautious approach from the boardroom. And then, as now, the risk of missing out on the Champions League looms large.

Celtic’s AEK Athens fiasco

Seven years ago, Rodgers went into the third qualifying round against AEK Athens with a depleted squad. Odsonne Edouard was injured, Kristoffer Ajer suspended, Moussa Dembele only half-fit, and Dedryck Boyata caught in a public contract dispute – if we put it politely. At the back, Jozo Šimunović and Jack Hendry were pressed into action.

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The John McGinn saga

The January window before had brought in Marvin Compper and Charly Musonda — neither of whom made any meaningful impact. A summer pursuit of John McGinn collapsed amid frustration and finger-pointing between Rodgers and CEO Peter Lawwell, the manager was eventually trolled with the signing of ‘free all summer’ Youssouf Mulumbu, via Kilmarnock, on a six-month deal.

Youssouf Mulumbu of Celtic arrives at the stadium prior to the UEFA Europa League Group B match between Celtic and Rosenborg at Celtic Park on September 20, 2018. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Celtic lost narrowly — 2–1 in Athens, 3–2 on aggregate — but the damage was bigger than the scoreline. We dropped into the Europa League, missing out on the Champions League’s financial windfall and competitive stage. Many supporters felt that two or three timely signings could have made all the difference.

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Fast forward to this summer

Fast forward to this summer and Rodgers has again asked for targeted quality before a crucial European tie. Seven signings have arrived, for a total of £3m. Kieran Tierney and Benjamin Nygren, seem first team picks. Shin Yamada and Jahmai Simpson-Pusey may be in the coming weeks. Ross Doohan, and Callum Osmand are some way down a list of ‘break glass in case of emergency’. Not all are ready for Champions League football and Hayato Inamura doesn’t seem to be in Rodgers’ immediate plans.

Benjamin Nygren of Celtic is seen during the pre-season friendly match between Celtic and Newcastle United at Celtic Park on July 19, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

And of course gaps remain. Jota is injured until early 2026 at best. Nicolas Kühn has departed for Como. The manager believes Kyogo hasn’t been replaced yet, and wide attacking options are thinly stretched when it comes to quality. Celtic have already missed out on Norwegian winger Sondre Orjasaeter, who seems set for FC Twente, and protracted negotiations for Michel-Ange Balikwisha and Jakob Breum may continue, but might not.

Celtic’s waiting game appears to be in play, holding back major investment until qualification is secured

Once again, the waiting game appears to be in play, holding back major investment until qualification is secured, while risking that such caution undermines the very qualification it depends on.

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA – KAIRAT ALMATY Players of Kairat celebrate during third qualifying round of UEFA Champions League football match between SK Slovan Bratislava and Kairat Almaty. Bratislava, Slovakia, August 12, 2025. IMAGO / Branislav Racko

The mystery of the play-off opponent is now finally solved. Celtic will travel to Kazakhstan to face Kairat Almaty, following their 4–3 penalty shootout victory over Slovan Bratislava, after a 1–1 aggregate draw. An 11 hour long-haul flight, and a team who can grind out results, it is the kind of tie that will test every ounce of preparation Celtic can muster. And the clock is mercilessly ticking.

The registration deadline for new signings for the play-off is tomorrow

The registration deadline for new signings for the play-off is tomorrow. Technically, the club could add two players up to 24 hours before the first leg. But even if any signings arrive, the chances of them being fit, sharp, and fully integrated into Rodgers’ system are vanishingly slim. We are deep into wishful thinking territory. Celtic will, for all practical purposes, rely entirely on the squad already in place — new arrivals or not.

Michael Nicholson, Chief Executive of Celtic FC looks on from the stands prior to the Premiership match between Celtic FC and St Mirren FC at Celtic Park on May 17, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

Dermot Desmond, Peter Lawwell, Chris McKay, Michael Nicholson

To understand why this pattern repeats, you have to look beyond the touchline. This summer’s transfer window has arguably had four main actors – Dermot Desmond, Peter Lawwell, Chris McKay, Michael Nicholson.

Two of them are effectively untouchable. Desmond’s role — whether seen as absentee landlord or meddling overseer — is entrenched. Lawwell, officially a non-executive chairman, is described as a helpful political pawn in UEFA circles apparently. His position seems secure whether his standard operating procedures are still in use, or not.

Dermot Desmond (L) and Chief Executive of Celtic Peter Lawwell look on prior to the UEFA Europa League Round of 32 first leg match between Celtic FC and FC Internazionale Milano at Celtic Park Stadium on February 19, 2015. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)

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If this window ends in failure, neither Desmond nor Lawwell will take the fall. That leaves Nicholson, the CEO, and McKay, the CFO, in the spotlight, alongside the manager.

Claim that Celtic’s summer recruitment list has been exhausted

Former Athletic journalist Kieran Devlin has claimed this week that Celtic’s recruitment list for the summer has already been exhausted with the recruitment team’s recommended players either moving elsewhere or rejecting the club’s advances. When that happens, the process shifts into ‘Agent Recommendation’ mode. Waiting for agents to pitch players, or sending out the informal ‘so what have you got for me?’ message.

The pattern from there is familiar. A player wants to leave his club. The selling club sets a price via the agent. The agent contacts the club. Celtic take a fortnight to conclude the deal.

Auston Trusty of Celtic during the pre-season friendly match between Celtic and Newcastle United at Celtic Park on July 19, 2025 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

The Auston Trusty fallback

Last summer’s protracted Dara O’Shea chase, which ended with the Auston Trusty fallback, is a perfect example. There’s nothing wrong with agent recommendations as part of a coherent plan — but when they become the plan, alarm bells ring.

Nicholson and McKay oversee negotiations and financial sign-off. Last summer showed cracks in their execution. The club arguably overpaid for two of the main three signings they made, and in key markets, the pair appeared out of their depth.

Celtic can close certain deals quickly. Free transfers for ex-players eager to return. Cut-price moves in markets like Japan or Denmark, where Celtic’s name and brand carries significant weight. But in the ‘quality’ market Rodgers demands — targeting at the very least proven Europa League players capable of stepping up to Champions League level — Celtic often falter. These are the deals that require precision, speed and skill, yet they’re the ones that most frequently stall.

Ange Postecoglou and Dominic McKay Unveiling – Celtic Park Celtic new manager Ange Postecoglou poses for a photo at Celtic Park Glasgow. Picture date: Friday June 25, 2021. Photo: Jeff Holmes

Celtic, from the outside looking in, have not implemented visible structural reforms to fix the process

Since the Ange Postecoglou era and the days of CAA Base and Dom McKay, the club has struggled to execute multiple deals across different markets with both pace and accuracy. Even after acknowledging past transfer shortcomings, even coming close to apologising for them, Celtic, from the outside looking in, have not implemented visible structural reforms to fix the process.

Brendan Rodgers has been consistent in his messaging. To compete properly in the Champions League, Celtic must add a few quality players. That is the difference he believes will make the difference between simply making up the numbers in the new League stage, if we get there, and pushing for the last 16 — something Celtic have not achieved since a December 2012 win over Spartak Moscow under Neil Lennon.

Celtic v Spartak Moscow, Champions League group stages Celtic Park on 5 December 2012. Photo Vagelis Georgariou

This time, that card cannot be played

And now, with the lessons of 2018 burned into memory, the manager is in a stronger position. Last time, he left the following February, and the board were able to brief the narrative that he was to blame. This time, that card cannot be played. Rodgers has explicitly promised he will be at the club until the end of his contract at least — longer if he is allowed to build rather than merely maintain.

The personnel may have changed, but the structural rhythm remains. In 2018 it was injuries, suspensions, stalled negotiations, and a narrow Champions League exit. In 2025 it is injuries, thin squad depth in key areas, missed primary targets, and the risk of entering the play-off underpowered.

Daizen Maeda and teammate Reo Hatate are pictured with the Scottish Premiership trophy after the season’s final match against St. Mirren, on May 17, 2025. Photo IMAGO (The Celtic Star)

In both cases, the board’s slow approach risked undermining the football objective. In both, Rodgers has had to balance public optimism with private exasperation. Champions League qualification is more than prestige, it is the foundation of the club’s financial model. The revenue funds future transfers, helps retain top players, such as Daizen Maeda and Reo Hatate, and maintains domestic dominance. Miss out, and the knock-on effects can ripple.

Michael Nicholson has now overseen multiple windows where primary targets slipped away and reactive signings filled the gaps

If Celtic go into this play-off short of quality and fall short, accountability must follow. With Desmond and Lawwell unlikely to take the hit, and the CFO seemingly avoiding criticism up to now, the buck will stop with the CEO. Nicholson has now overseen multiple windows where primary targets slipped away and reactive signings filled the gaps. If the same happens again — if the club ends up relying on agent throw-ins because the main list was exhausted or negotiations dragged — heads will have to roll.

Celtic Manager Brendan Rodgers Celtic v St Mirren, Scottish Premiership, Celtic Park, 3 August 2025. Photo Stuart Wallace, IMAGO / Shutterstock (The Celtic Star)

Michael Nicholson, Chief Executive of Celtic FC looks on from the stands prior to the William Hill Premiership match between Celtic FC and St Mirren FC at Celtic Park on May 17, 2025. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

The lesson from 2018 was obvious. Cautious spending in July and August can be a false economy. Waiting to qualify before properly investing can mean you fail to qualify because you didn’t invest.

The optimistic take now is that Celtic get the right signings over the line in time, Rodgers beds them in quickly, and the club reaches the League stage. The pessimistic take is the same slow processes drag on, qualification slips away, and the déjà vu is complete.

For now, the play-off and the final weeks of the window will decide whether this summer is remembered for strategic patience or for damaging hesitance. But the warning signs are already there.