Champions League: points needed for top 8 and play-offs | OneFootball

We are halfway through the League Phase of the new 2025/26 Champions League, and the scenario for Italian teams is starting to become clearer.

Champions League, how many points are needed to enter the Top 8 and Playoffs

After four matchdays, while awaiting the matches of Inter and Atalanta, the overall performance is not fully in line with expectations.

The home draws against Sporting Lisbon and Eintracht Frankfurt have indeed slowed down the progress of Juventus and Napoli, now in the 23rd and 21st positions of the overall standings, respectively. These are delicate positions, just above the threshold that separates the qualified teams from those eliminated.

According to simulations by Football Meets Data, which analyzed over 10,000 statistical scenarios, the situation remains positive for all Italian teams: Inter is practically certain of the Top 24, while Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta are still fully in the race for the playoffs.

Points needed for the Top 8: threshold at 16, Inter is on the right track

Entering the top eight of the overall Champions League standings guarantees direct access to the round of 16, avoiding the playoff phase and ensuring a significant financial reward from UEFA.

Simulations by Football Meets Data confirm that the threshold for the Top 8 will remain around 16 points, accompanied by a positive goal difference of at least +7. A year ago, Aston Villa, Lille, and Bayer Leverkusen closed the group of the top eight, all between 16 and 19 points.

Inter, after three matches, is already at 9 points, and the next home match against Kairat Almaty could propel them to 12 points, just 4 points away from the goal with four games still to play. The subsequent schedule will be challenging (Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Arsenal, Borussia Dortmund), but the Nerazzurri remain favorites:

81% probability of finishing in the top eight

99.9% probability of entering the Top 24

In case of a victory against Kairat, qualification for the playoffs would become mathematical.

Points needed for the Top 24: threshold between 9 and 10 points for Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta

Regarding the Top 24, which guarantees access to the Champions League playoffs, the minimum threshold might decrease compared to last season. In 2024/25, Bruges, Sporting, and Manchester City secured the last passes with 11 points and goal differences between –4 and +4.

This year, according to Football Meets Data, the threshold for the Top 24 could drop to 9 or 10 points, making the goal well within reach for the Italian teams.

Here are the projections updated to November 4, 2025:

Atalanta: 79% chance of qualification – 4 points in 3 games, with Marseille, Eintracht, Chelsea, Athletic Bilbao, and Union Saint-Gilloise still to face.

Napoli: 81% chance – 4 points in 4 games, with Qarabag, Benfica, Copenhagen, and Chelsea on the schedule.

Juventus: 73% chance – 3 points in 4 games, needing to win at least two matches among Bodo Glimt, Pafos, Benfica, and Monaco.

The Italians and the economic and sporting goal of the playoffs

Failing to qualify among the top 24 would mean a significant setback, not only in terms of prestige but also economically. The new Champions League format, with the League Phase in a single group, rewards consistent teams and penalizes those who falter in the early matchdays.

With half the journey still to play, Inter, Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta remain fully in the race. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining who can dream of the round of 16 and who will have to settle for a high-tension playoff.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.