Coppa Italia preview: Inter vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

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·22 avril 2025

Coppa Italia preview: Inter vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan will play Inter for the fifth and final time this season, and this time with a place in the final of the Coppa Italia at stake.

It is all to play for in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final after Milan and Inter drew the first leg 1-1 at San Siro. Both goals came in the second half as Tammy Abraham got the opener with a lovely turn and finish before Hakan Calhanoglu equalised with a strike from range.

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The Coppa Italia not only represents a last resort for Milan’s hopes of a Europa League spot, but also for Sergio Conceicao to end his time in the best way. He hit out at the media again after the Atalanta loss, but was a bit more restrained in his pre-match press conference.

Game date: Wednesday, April 23 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Daniele Doveri (VAR: Marini)

Team news

The 1-0 loss to Atalanta on Sunday was the 10th league defeat of the season for Milan, a market they had not hit since the 2019-20 season. It means that the team remain anchored in ninth place and on course for their worst finish since 2014-15.

With the European spots now miles away, the ‘alternative’ route of the Coppa Italia is all that remains. Winning it would guarantee a place in the Europa League, but it is easier said than done with Inter and Bologna ahead.

This is because Milan have been simply awful against the teams that precede them in the standings. Of the 14 games played against teams higher in the table (there are still two to play, the return matches against Bologna and Roma) Milan have racked up just points out of 42 available.

The one win that they got in that time was against Inter, but it was all the way back in September under Paulo Fonseca. Under Conceicao, the Rossoneri have kept clean sheets in just four out of 24 matches, highlighting another big issue.

The coach did provide two good bits of news on the eve of the match: both Kyle Walker and Ruben Loftus-Cheek were back in full training. Although both are not close to 100%, he confirmed that both will at least be in the squad.

Thus, the dilemma becomes whether to persist with the three-man defence. The 4-0 win with that system in Udine was followed up by a defeat without scoring, and using three centre-backs against an Inter side that know the formation so well presents a real question mark.

Photo by Angel Martinez/Getty Images

It seems, though, that a three-back will be preferred and the defensive unit will be lead by Mike Maignan from between the goalposts. Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia will retain their places, but Strahinja Pavlovic will be shifted to the bench, with Conceicao favouring Malick Thiaw.

The midfield duo will remain unchanged once again, with there not being any other suitable options, whilst Theo Hernandez will once again start at wing-back. On the right, Alex Jimenez is currently expected to start, but Walker could be a starter…

There are no doubts about Pulisic or Leao’s places in the front line, but Tammy Abraham, who is expected to start, could lose his place to Luka Jovic between now and kick-off, though the Englishman is surely more likely.

Predicted Milan XI (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Thiaw; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.

The opponents

Inter won the league easily last season, and in our preview before the first meeting of the current campaign we highlighted the summer business that they did to try and ensure that the get to 21 Scudetti before Milan get to 20.

The Nerazzurri are actually still able to win the treble this season, given they are top of the league on goal difference, in the Champions League semi-finals after beating Bayern Munich, and of course have the chance to reach the Coppa final.

Despite the fact they could swoop three trophies, some doubts have crept in about recent performances. A 2-2 away at Parma from (from 2-0 up) exposed some flaws, and most recently the Nerazzurri were beaten 1-0 by Bologna right at the end after Riccardo Orsolini’s acrobatic attempt.

That allowed Napoli to move level on points with them and if they were to end on equal points then it would be a play-off to decide the Scudetto. Napoli do have the easier run-in on paper, though Inter have important experience in big moments.

Simone Inzaghi’s side are meant to play on Saturday after the second leg against Roma – a team unbeaten in the league in 2025 – so there was one eye on conserving energy for that. However, Pope Francis’ funeral being on that day means it may be moved, which would mean they can go all-in for this.

Alessandro Bastoni and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have picked up suspensions but those only apply in the league. In terms of injury news, Denzel Dumfries and Piotr Zielinski are definitely out, while Marcus Thuram is a strong doubt.

There is only one change expected in the defence from the weekend’s loss, and this means that Yann Sommer will probably return to the bench, allowing Josep Martinez to play. Ahead of him, Pavard and Acerbi will remain alongside Bastoni to form the trio likely to start.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan should partner Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella, despite suggestions that Davide Frattesi could start. Whilst Federico Dimarco and Matteo Darmian are likely to play on the flanks from the off.

With Marcus Thuram’s injury, it seems probable that Correa will lead the line alongside his fellow Argentine Lautaro Martinez.

Predicted Inter XI (3-5-2): Martinez; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Barella, Dimarco; Correa, Martinez.

Head to head

Milan and Inter have faced each other 227 times in their history, with 73 wins for the Rossoneri, 85 for Inter and 69 draws. After a streak of six wins in a row for the blue side of the city, though, it has been a different story this season.

The Diavolo have not been beaten in any of the four games this season with a 2-1 win in the first league meeting followed up by a 3-2 Supercoppa Italiana final win and then two 1-1 draws in the return league game and cup semi-final first leg.

As mentioned, it was Abraham who got the goal for Milan in the first leg, having scored the winner in the Supercoppa final. Calhanoglu meanwhile, scored against his former side, to tie things up.

Key facts and stats

➤ The 244th derby will take place at San Siro and the two teams will compete for the 29th time in the Coppa Italia, with a record of 10 wins for Milan, 9 for Inter and 9 draws, the last one 1-1 in the first leg.

➤ The two teams have eight previous meetings in the knockout phase of the Coppa Italia before the final and both have advanced to the next round on four occasions (the most recent in favour of the Nerazzurri in 2021/22, in the semi-final).

➤ This is the fifth time that a Milan derby will be played in a cup semi-final, after the previous ones in the Coppa Italia in 1984/85 and 2021/22 and those in the UEFA Champions League in 2002/03 and 2022/23: after Milan had progressed on the first two occasions, it was Inter who prevailed in the two most recent ones.

Ones to watch

Little needs to be said about Lautaro, frustratingly, and the Argentine has the ability to flip the game on its head in an instant. If Inter are to go through, it is very probable that he will have a big say.

Then, Benjamin Pavard is another to watch. The Frenchman has been a player regularly called upon by Simone Inzaghi this year, and he will be tasked with stopping Leao and Theo Hernandez, which he certainly can do.

Maybe a cop out, but the first area to highlight for Milan is the left side. If the Rossoneri are to reach the final, Thiaw, Theo and Leao will be pivotal. Each has the ability to decide the game, but, they are all prone to errors, and just one could be enough for Inter.

Then, the striker needs a huge game. For Tammy, if he is able to perform against Inter again, it could sway the club in favour of his permanent arrival, whilst Luka Jovic needs performances to boost his summer chances. It’s unlikely that Santiago Gimenez starts, but if he does, little needs to be said about the impact he needs to have.

Prediction

We have seen late drama in every Derby della Madonnina this season, and this game will probably have some more. With the way the Coppa Italia works, extra time would not be a surprise at all, even if the record of this is not great historically. Considering what is at stake for Milan and Conceicao, it may just go in their favour.

Inter 1-2 (AET) Milan