Corinthians’ Brasileirão odds barely change after defeat, see stats

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Central do Timão

·7 novembre 2025

Corinthians’ Brasileirão odds barely change after defeat, see stats

By Daniel Keppler / Central do Timão Editorial Team

Corinthians saw their positive streak interrupted after losing to Red Bull Bragantino 2-1 away from home, in a match played this Wednesday (5th) for the 32nd round of the Brasileirão. The defeat, marked by controversial refereeing decisions, including two questionable Corinthians expulsions, kept Dorival Júnior’s team in tenth place on the table, with 42 points.

Even with the setback, however, the chances of relegation to Série B in 2026 remain very close to zero, according to updated calculations from the UFMG Department of Mathematics. Now, Corinthians have a probability of just 0.12% of relegation at the end of the competition, a slight increase from the previously projected 0.035%, keeping them as the 11th most threatened team in the championship.

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Photo: Rodrigo Coca/Ag. Corinthians

In addition, Corinthians saw their chances of qualifying for the 2026 Copa Sudamericana increase: after defeating Grêmio, they were at 80.9%, and now have risen to 87.9%. Meanwhile, the probability of qualifying for the Copa Libertadores, which reached 14.7% after the result against Grêmio, dropped to 3.7% after the setback against Red Bull Bragantino.

By remaining at 42 points in the Brasileirão, the team was unable to widen the gap from the relegation zone, but still maintains a comfortable distance from the Z4 teams. Looking to return to winning ways and react in the tournament, Corinthians’ next match will be this Sunday (9th), at 4:00 pm, against Ceará, at Neo Química Arena, for the 33rd round of the Brasileirão.

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