Everton v Leeds: Visitors worth chancing at 2/1 and 12/5 Shots bets also fancied | OneFootball

Everton v LeedsMonday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Inconsistent Toffees suffer huge injury blow

Won three, drew three, lost three. That's Everton's record from their last nine games in what is becoming a very unpredictable Premier League season. David Moyes' men played three consecutive games from the start of January at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, conceding four in a home defeat to Brentford before failing to beat rock bottom Wolves in a 1-1 draw and then losing on penalties to Sunderland in the FA Cup.

So it makes sense then that with injuries and suspensions the Toffees went to highflying Aston Villa last Sunday - a team that had won 11 consecutive home games - and won! I say that with more than a hint of sarcasm of course, though I did say this Premier League season is very unpredictable.

But take a look at Everton's home form and away form separately and perhaps the Toffees are actually among the more predictable teams currently; they're not very good at home, they're very good on the road. Moyes' men have won just one of their last six in front of their own fans, but away from home they've lost just one of their last six and registered clean sheets in five of those games.

While Everton remain without some key players including defenders Michael Keane and Jarrad Branthwaite, they suffered the huge blow of losing star man Jack Grealish earlier in the week. Despite playing the full game at Aston Villa it has emerged that Grealish has a stress fracture in his foot and could be out for at least two months.

Whites a tough team to beat

Leeds have turned a corner since changing formation at half-time when 2-0 down to Manchester City in late November. Daniel Farke's men have lost just one of their last 10 games in all competitions, that being a dramatic 4-3 defeat at Newcastle - who are rock solid at St James' Park - where the hosts scored twice in stoppage time to seal the win.

Barring that crazy night in Newcastle, Leeds have been hard to play against away from home since that defeat to Man City. At Brentford, who have been in terrific form, they conceded just seven shots all game in a 1-1 draw, and at Sunderland, another team with an excellent home record, Leeds conceded just eight shots in another 1-1 draw.

True, and very understandably, they conceded a lot more shots away to Liverpool and Newcastle, but they stood firm at Anfield to draw 0-0 and they really could have taken something from St James' Park.

Farke has no major injury worries though defender Gabriel Gudmundsson missed training earlier in the week with a muscle problem and is rated 50/50 for Monday night's game, but in better news he could welcome back summer signing Anton Stach after he missed the win over Fulham last weekend with a minor groin injury.

Visitors worth backing for the win

In the Match Odds market Everton are the 6/4 favourites to win the game, and while that's largely down to them being at home - they were 9/4 in the reverse fixture at the start of the season - on current form I wouldn't be rushing in to back the Toffees at that price.

That's not to say that they won't win, after all, they beat title-chasing Aston Villa last week, but given their current home form and the huge blow of losing Jack Grealish, I'd have wanted a slightly bigger price.

Moyes' men have won just one of their last six at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, and after opening the season with consecutive wins at their new home their following 11 games in front of their own fans (all competitions) have a record of W3-D3-L5.

So I'm happy to chance Leeds taking all three points on Monday night at odds of 2/1. They were much the better side when winning the reverse fixture 1-0 in August, and in recent months their overall form has been much better than Everton's, they've been tough to beat on the road, and they seem to be scoring goals regularly of late.

Since that defeat to Man City which resulted in a tactical change by Farke, only five teams have won more points in the Premier League than Leeds (14) and only Liverpool (0) lost fewer games than the them (1). The Whites scored 17 goals in these nine games, four more than they managed in their first 13 games this season.

Given all of the above I have to make a Leeds win my best bet of th game.

Below you can see a chart showing the percentage chance for each outcome using the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

Shots and Calvert-Lewin other good options

As always, I like to suggest a Bet Builder options even if not tipping it up myself, and the two options that catch my eye ahead of this game are shots for Leeds and striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin having an impact against his former club.

In terms of shots, Leeds have been quite prolific of late on the road. They registered 18 in total at in-form Brentford and 17 shots at the Stadium of Light where the Black Cats remain unbeaten this season. And although they understandably struggled in that department at Anfield they did manage a more than respectable 14 shots at St James' Park where Newcastle are very hard to beat.

In Everton's last two home games they conceded 13 shots to rock-bottom Wolves and 18 to Sunderland, so against a much more attack-minded Leeds side I'm happy to wager that Leeds will register at least 16 shots on Monday night. Remember, those shots can be on or off target and also includes blocked shots.

The price on offer is 12/5 and I think that's very reasonable, so I will put that up on its own as my second bet of the game, but if you're looking for an anytime goalscorer option to put in a Bet Builder then Calvert-Lewin is your go to man at 2/1.

He's in fantastic form with eight goals in his last 10 games and he'll be fired up to put one away against his former team mates, and if Leeds get as many shots away as I'm expecting then he's a very lively runner.