FIFA shake-up: new 2026 World Cup seeding could favour Italy | OneFootball

FIFA is reportedly considering a significant change to the seeding system for the 2026 World Cup draw, scheduled in Washington on December 5th.

FIFA, revolution in sight? New seeding for the 2026 World Cup draw: Italy could benefit

The proposal, still under discussion, could radically change the group composition and offer a concrete advantage to Italy, especially if the Azzurri qualify through the playoffs.

Currently, as was the case for Qatar 2022, national teams that qualify through playoffs are automatically placed in the fourth and last pot, regardless of their FIFA ranking. This criterion often penalizes high-level teams forced to go through playoffs, as could happen to the team led by Gennaro Gattuso.

The context: Italy on the edge, but with an extra hope

The international window in November represents the last opportunity in 2025 to determine the European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, which will be held in the USA, Mexico, and Canada. Italy, second in their group behind a Norway led by Erling Haaland, finds itself in a complex situation: overcoming the gap seems difficult, but not impossible. However, even if they go through the playoffs, a revision of the FIFA system could significantly improve the Azzurri's prospects.

The FIFA proposal: ranking at the center of the seeding

According to Football Meets Data, FIFA is considering using only the world ranking to determine the composition of the draw pots, regardless of the qualification path.

In this scenario, all national teams – including those coming from the playoffs – would be placed in the four pots based on their position in the FIFA ranking updated to November 2025. For Italy, currently among the top ten in the world, this would mean a placement in the first pot, alongside the most highly-rated seeds. An important advantage, as it would allow them to avoid opponents of equal level in the group stage and face, at least on paper, an easier initial path.

Chain effects on the draw

If FIFA were to adopt this new criterion, the change would not only affect Italy. Germany, currently firmly in the first pot, would slip into the second pot, potentially becoming one of the most dangerous teams for the top seeds to face. Similarly, national teams like Austria, Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, and Nigeria – all candidates to go through the playoffs – could be promoted to the third pot, completely reshaping the balance of the draw.

The last pot, finally, would be composed of already qualified teams positioned lower in the ranking, such as Tunisia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Uzbekistan.

Timing and prospects

The final decision is expected by the end of November, as the official group draw will be held, as mentioned, on December 5th. If FIFA confirms the change, it would represent a paradigm shift compared to Qatar 2022, when the qualification path weighed more than the team's actual value in the world ranking.

For Italy, the message is clear: “First, we need to secure qualification, then we can look at the draw with greater optimism.” If the new rule is confirmed, the Azzurri could finally present themselves at the World Cup as protagonists, even from the perspective of the draw.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.