How much worse are Arsenal without Saliba? Worrying stats ahead of Liverpool clash | OneFootball

Despite the form of Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, for many observers William Saliba is Arsenal‘s most influential player. So when he saw red against Bournemouth, knowing what was to come, you could understand supporters’ trepidation.

This weekend, Premier League leaders Liverpool will visit the Emirates in scintillating form under new head coach Arne Slot. The Gunners will be without their French centre-back, whose absence was cited as the central reason behind how Mikel Arteta’s team collapsed during the 2022/23 title run-in.

A back injury sustained at the wrong time was a costly setback for Arsenal, as they lost their lead in the Premier League to eventual champions Manchester City. During his absence, the Londoners played 11 games, winning five, including a victory against Wolves on the final day, when the championship had already been decided. However, they crucially squandered two-goal leads in consecutive road matches against Liverpool and West Ham. Overall while their attacking performance remained steady they only kept two clean sheets in that run, conceding at least twice in five games.

Breaking down those 11 games further, six were at home and five were away. Two of those away games were arguably the toughest any Premier League team can face: the aforementioned Liverpool draw and Manchester City, which they lost 4-1. The latter effectively dashed their dreams of ending a 19-year championship drought.

At home without Saliba, the record is a much more impressive: four wins, one draw, and one loss. They scored 19 goals, conceded nine and kept one clean sheet. But the damage done by Saliba’s absence is something Arsenal players have openly spoken about.

“When he plays, we concede few goals, when he doesn’t play, the number increases,” Gabriel Jesus said last year. “When I got injured, Eddie [Nketiah] replaced me very well. Then we signed Leo [Trossard]. We kept the pace. But when Saliba got injured, it was complicated. The other defenders are good, but we were playing in a certain way. Look at the stats we concede a lot less with him.”

The stats Jesus refers to are as such: When Saliba plays, Arsenal have a 74% win rate and concede on average 0.8 goals per game. Without him, their win rate is 45% and they concede 1.6 goals.

Capturing the value of central defenders in statistics can be difficult, but there are two critical metrics where Saliba excels. Firstly, his one-on-one defending isn’t just exceptional; it’s arguably the best in England’s top division. Players are almost always stopped when they try to run past Saliba, who boasts the best success rate for tackles on dribblers in the Premier League this season (90%).

Furthermore, he’s displayed remarkable tenacity by attempting 21 tackles and winning possession 12 times this season, a feat unmatched by any other Arsenal player. In contrast, his usual partner-in-crime, Gabriel Magalhaes, has only attempted six tackles. During the 2023/24 campaign, he recorded 213 ‘ball recoveries’ — where a player collects a loose ball. This was more than any other Premier League centre-back and eighth among all players.

Combining his recovery stats from last season with his tackling success in this one, you get a picture of an elegant yet formidable centre-back adept at both positional play and one-on-one challenges. These attributes are essential for Arsenal, especially when facing Liverpool’s direct runners such as Luis Diaz.

It will be challenging to replace Saliba, as Arteta never had to face this dilemma last season where Saliba was always present. Making the situation even more problematic is the fact that Riccardo Calafiori, who although nominally used as a left-back this season  can can slot into Saliba’s position, is a doubt after sustaining a knock against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League this week.

It was Rob Holding who predominantly filled in when Saliba last missed a Premier League game for Arsenal. However, it’s fair to say that Arteta now has better options. The ideal scenario is Jurrien Timber returning from injury. If not, Arteta may turn to Jakub Kiwior.

There is also some doubt as to how Arne Slot might try to exploit Arsenal’s weakened backline. Darwin Nunez could earn a rare start if Diogo Jota fails to recover from his rib injury. The much-maligned Uruguayan marksman scored in against RB Leipzig and is known for his chaotic runs into the channel.

Although it’s only the ninth gameweek of the Premier League season, this upcoming match already feels like one that Arsenal can’t afford to lose. They are four points behind Liverpool and risk suffering back-to-back Premier League losses for the first time since December 31, 2023. Arteta must deal with other injury issues, too. In attack, Bukayo Saka faces a fitness test after missing the Bournemouth defeat and Arsenal’s midweek win over Shakhtar Donetsk.

Before his red card against Bournemouth, Saliba had played every minute in the Premier League for the Gunners since the start of last season. This weekend will ultimately reveal whether Arsenal have grown enough as a team to overcome such a huge test without him.

Should the visitors capitalise and secure all three points, it would mark their second-best start to a Premier League season after nine games, reaching 24 points. The only other instance of them amassing 24 or more points at this stage of a Premier League campaign was in 2019-20, a season in which they clinched the title, something that has eluded Arsenal for over two decades.