How Premier League Titles Are Really Won | OneFootball

Step into the hall where the Premier League keeps its memories and the walls are lined with frames. Each carries a year and a name beneath it. Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City. The faces change, but the pattern remains. At the far end, an empty space marked 2025-26 waits for its inscription. As you move past the portraits, one figure appears more often than the rest.

Sir Alex Ferguson stands there thirteen times, a reminder of sustained dominance. His old saying lingers in the quiet of the room: “Attack wins you games, defense wins you titles.”

You pause before the blank frame and wonder whether that still holds true, and which side of the current race has understood it better.

The Difference in How They Win

After 26 games, Arsenal lead the table by 4 points. It is an advantage that looks narrow, and perhaps is. Manchester City remain close enough to matter, and close enough to remind everyone how familiar they are with the run-in. The margins begin to explain why the gap feels uneasy. As per Opta Analyst, before facing Leeds, 8 of Arsenal’s 15 wins had come by a single goal. They have been efficient and composed, but they rarely blow teams away. City’s pattern tells a different story. 7 of their 14 wins have come by 3 goals or more, albeit conceding at their own end. The contrast suggests two approaches. Arsenal tighten games. City are still capable of opening them up.

The contrast between the two teams. Source: Opta Analyst (Feb 10th)

Arsenal’s Numbers Behind Stability

The broader numbers suggest Arsenal’s position is not accidental. As per Opta Analyst, they rank among the top 3 in the league for non-penalty xG, just behind City, and remain near the top for total goals scored. When those attacking figures are placed alongside their defensive record, the picture sharpens. Their xG difference is the strongest in the league, driven largely by the best xG against figure in the division.

This separation from the chasing pack is not small. It reflects how Mikel Arteta sets his team up. His approach begins with control. Arsenal prioritise limiting the quality of chances they concede before stretching games open themselves. It does not always produce wide margins, but it produces stability. The question is whether that stability, which often leads to tight wins and occasional draws, is enough across 38 games. Over time, it is not defeats that narrow the gap, but the points left behind.

Arsenal’s underlying dominance this season.

City’s Risk as a Strategy

Meanwhile, in Manchester, the adjustment has been different. Guardiola has not abandoned control, but he has allowed more verticality into his side. In recent months he has spoken about studying teams such as Bournemouth and Newcastle, sides that attack with direct intent but without losing structure. That influence is visible.

City still value possession, but when space opens, they are quicker to attack it. Transitions are no longer something to avoid at all costs. The shift is measured rather than dramatic, yet it changes the rhythm of their games. Where Arsenal seek to reduce volatility, City appear more willing to accept it if it increases the chance of decisive wins.

Manchester City often used a direct option to create chances against Liverpool

What Wins a Title?

There are still variables that will shape where the empty frame is filled. Guardiola’s shift carries risk. Allowing more vertical moments invites more transitions, and transitions invite uncertainty. But perhaps uncertainty is necessary when chasing a side that has built its season on control. City’s squad is suited to absorb some of that exposure. Players like Haaland and Semenyo turn open space into advantage, which can tilt tight margins.

The question, then, is not simply about who creates more or who concedes less. It is about sustainability. Is it safer to tighten games and accept the occasional draw, or to risk defeat in pursuit of more decisive wins? Over 38 matches, titles are not only won through dominance, but through how teams manage the points that slip away.

And so the empty frame remains. The numbers point in different directions, the styles offer different risks, and the margins are thin enough to be shaped by a single draw or a single bold decision. Perhaps there is a reason that Sir Alex Ferguson’s words have echoed through so many seasons. “Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.” Over 38 matches, it is not only about how you win, but how often you do not. The question is which side has judged that balance correctly.