Jones Knows Notebook: Now is the time to back 95/1 Ecuador for World Cup glory | OneFootball

World Cup 2026

Ecuador are the smart long-term World Cup play says Lewis Jones

In this week's Notebook column Lewis Jones turns his attention to the outright market for the 2026 World Cup and is excited about the dark horse potential of 95/1 shots Ecuador...

Ecuador to rule the world?

It's the time of the season when I start to think about the World Cup outright winner market. The tournament is nine months away and, with an international break starting today, it's time to build positions.

And, at the current prices, one team stands out. Ecuador.

They are the smart long-range punt for the 2026 World Cup and are likely to be a mainstream pick in a few months. At 95.0 on the Betfair Exchange, they have the potential to be the tournament's dark horses.

Ignore World Cup favourites and back Ecuador

When it comes to long-term World Cup punts, you're not after the market leaders. That's where the eyes are. There really is little point tying your money up on Spain at 5.2 or England at 8.0 - there's no meat on that betting bone.

What you want at this time is a side on the rise, a team with a system, a sprinkling of magic and the right conditions to thrive when the real stuff starts. Hello Ecuador, a team that finished second in South American qualifying after 18 games, higher than Brazil.

Ecuador also started the campaign with a three-point penalty, a punishment for using falsified documents for a player during the previous campaign. They lost lost just two matches in qualification and they were away to Argentina and Brazil.

Under Sebastian Beccacece, who took over from Felix Sanchez in August 2024, Ecuador have conceded just twice in 12 matches. The manager has installed a rigid defensive structure that suits tournament football. The backline, marshalled by Champions League winner Willian Pacho, is disciplined, athletic and unfazed by pressure.

Remember, major tournaments are won by teams that are horrible to play against. Didier Deschamps' body of work with France proves that. You need a team that can grind their way through a knockout game. In Ecuador, we could just be dealing with one of best defences in world football and arguably the best defensive midfielder in the world screening it.

Moises Caicedo's form for Chelsea over the past 12 months has rocketed. He's no longer just a destroyer, though he is exceptional at that, he's also dictating games, breaking lines and scoring the odd worldie. Liverpool felt the brunt of that at the weekend.

At 23, he'll be peaking at the 2026 World Cup. He is the leader of a group that has grown up and played together through the youth ranks. That matters in knockout tournaments, where chemistry often trumps individual quality and talent depth.

Hot Ecuador can thrive in US

A subtle but significant angle here is the tournament setting as the 2026 tournament is being hosted across the USA, Mexico and Canada, but most knockout games - and almost all big matches - will be played in the USA, where many cities, especially in the south as we saw at the Club World Cup, will see searing temperatures north of 30°C.

Ecuador are likely to thrive rather than be hampered by the conditions. They have grown up, trained and played some home qualifiers in Quito at 2,800m above sea level. They're conditioned to the extremes. And that's a hidden edge many European nations won't have.

By jumping on their current price, you're holding a backable outsider who will likely qualify for the last-16 and give you a back-to-lay opportunity in the tournament when the price shortens.

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Back Ecuador to win the World Cup @ 95.0