La Liga Title Race: Hansi Flick's Barcelona now 8/11 with 11/10 Real Madrid on the back foot | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Contrary to pre-season expectations, Barcelona have been La Liga's premier attacking side

Following Barcelona's signature win in the Clásico on Saturday, Jamie Kemp sets the scene on a La Liga title race that has taken an early and unexpected turn...

Barcelona's dream week shows they're for real

Hands up who thought Hansi Flick's Barcelona were a serious candidate to win trophies before the season. There will be some of you out there, so credit where credit is due. Now hands up who thought Hansi Flick's Barcelona were going to be this good, swat Bayern Munich aside in Europe, and then demolish Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, all before October was out.

Anyone...?

There's a long way between here and silverware, but we can now say with clear certainty that Barcelona are a force to be reckoned with again. If not in Europe, then at least in Spain. And quite frankly, that's way ahead of where many of us expected them to be at this point, particularly given Real Madrid's trajectory leading into 2024-25. From being big pre-season favourites at 4/9, Carlo Ancelotti's side have been pushed into a remarkably early backseat in the title race.

After Saturday's statement victory at the Bernabeu, Barcelona now lead Real Madrid by six points in La Liga. That's the biggest margin they've had on them as league leaders - having played the same number of games - since the final day of the 2022-23 season (which Barça won under Xavi).

Meanwhile, the last time Real Madrid won the title in a season where they were 6+ points behind the leader at any point was in 2006-07 - they've had 11 seasons since then where they've trailed by this much and not managed to recover.

Could it be that Real Madrid - the super-charged, reigning champions of both Spain and Europe - are already drifting?

We'd be fools to write them off at this stage, but La Liga history tells us six points is a margin to cause concern - even in October. And if we're to look beneath the hard reality of results and points gaps in the table, there's little basis for us to believe in a Madrid remontada at this stage.

Spanish La Liga - Top 5 Goalscorers

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What is going wrong at Real Madrid?

After 11 games, Real Madrid are in a true crisis of playing style and identity. Perhaps the humbling Clásico defeat will mark a before and after on that front - or who knows, perhaps it'll even accentuate it.

The problem for them is while they strain to alleviate the situation, urgently searching for remedies, Barcelona seem to lean further into an identity that has gripped them from day one of the Hansi Flick era.

When many doubted the viability of their ultra-high defensive line against the likes of Bayern and Real Madrid, Barça didn't move an inch in the face of high-powered attacks and emerged reinforced in their conviction. Indeed, whether you agree with the approach or not, it has served to connect them as a team.

The high line and aggressive press tell and show us that Barcelona are a cohesive unit, guided by a clear plan, while Real Madrid's connectedness pales in comparison.

For his part, Carlo Ancelotti says Real Madrid can't play the same way as they did with Toni Kroos, and that the profile of their squad now suits games with naturally less control. "An up-and-down game suits us well," he said prior to the Borussia Dortmund game. "We have more difficulty in games with [high] possession because we don't have players with the characteristics to play in small spaces."

While nobody doubts a team with the likes of Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé ought to be devastating in transition and with space to attack, the reality is most of Real Madrid's league matches don't offer those conditions.

The fact they rank sixth in La Liga for open play xG (11.6), with all the attacking firepower they have, highlights an incoherent team who are dependent on individual moments and lack a clear framework for creating chances.

And in the subsequent weakening of the team's structure without the ball, imparted by their star-studded attack, their struggle for compactness on the defensive side has been evident from day one of the Mbappé era.

What happens next in La Liga's title race?

For now, we should probably operate on the basis that Barcelona are going to come back down to earth a little bit, and Real Madrid will naturally improve because they can't continue to be this fallible.

Take Barça's rate of goalscoring, for example. Their 37 goals in 11 league games this season is more than they'd scored at this stage in any campaign with Pep Guardiola and/or Lionel Messi in their ranks.

They have not so much as flown out of the gate but blown the gate off its hinges, and for as decisive as Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal have been, things are logically going to cool off somewhat.

The question for Real Madrid is whether them being able to figure things out with a little more precision, along with Barcelona's inevitable return to earth to some degree, will be enough to wrestle back control of the title race.

Spanish La Liga - Top 5 Chances Created

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While we can acknowledge Barça's astronomical scoring is likely to settle down, the fact is they've still been significantly better than Real Madrid on the performance front. Barça's expected goal difference (+16.5) has been twice as good as their rivals (+7.8) so far, with Ancelotti's side essentially level with a struggling Atlético Madrid side (+7.8) on that front.

Throw in the fact that Real Madrid have had five more penalties than they've conceded this term (5 for, 0 against), compared to the leaders only having one more than they've conceded (3 for, 2 against), and it's a pretty damning picture that the numbers paint.

Barça won't be this good all season, but the foundations for them being keeping Real Madrid at bay - or even extending their lead - look pretty sturdy from here.

With a third of the season almost gone, Ancelotti's side find themselves in limbo. They know they need to be better, but how? Reinforce the defensive shape and bank on the attackers waking up? Tell Kylian Mbappé he has to press more? Move Jude Bellingham back into an attacking role? Sign a midfielder in January to try and salvage some of Toni Kroos' effect?

While Real Madrid have all sorts of doubts to address, involving a configuration of vying superstars, Barcelona inhabit the powerful space of being relaxed about their situation, yet determined to push the envelope of a plan that is working to perfection.

Flick's side have hit the open road, while their rivals are stuck in the pit lane.