Lewis Jones' Notebook: Ignore xG and oppose Man Utd against Sunderland | OneFootball

English Premier League

Manchester United are vulnerable at home to Sunderland says Lewis Jones

In his latest Notebook Lewis Jones explains why Manchester United's high expected goals numbers in attack are a trap punters shouldn't fall into this weekend against Sunderland...

Top of the xG charts means little

Everything will be fine, just look at Manchester United's expected goals for data - it's the best in the Premier League (12.21), according to Opta.  It hurts me to say it but stats can mislead.

The expected goals metric has become the shiny toy of football analysis. It's been used by the smartest gamblers in history to make their millions. It's a vital tool in assessing a team's overall output, no doubt.

But the moment you start judging a team's attacking quality solely by their xG, you're dancing on a tactical tightrope without a safety net when it comes to making betting decisions. The temptation is to draw big conclusions from small truths to fit a narrative. We're all guilty of it.

Game state explains all

However, game-state is so important when assessing the true reliability of a team's expected goals for data.

To put it bluntly, United's expected goals data is so healthy as their game-state has forced them to chase games after falling behind in matches, owing to their horrendous defensive process, which is the second worst in the Premier League according to expected goals against (9.35).

From six Premier League games, they have spent 244 minutes trailing this season - only West Ham and Wolves have trailed for more minutes. To provide some context, Crystal Palace, a team playing in a similar shape to United, but having spent £100m less in the summer, have yet to fall behind in a game this season.

Some are pointing to United's data as a sign that things are about to click under Ruben Amorim.

Look at that chunky 1.5 expected goals total against Manchester City, they'll argue.

However, almost of all that data and chance creation came when the game was gone and United were 3-0 down. City didn't need to attack. City's job was done while United could attack without consequence in a situation that reveals little about their output.

It's the kind of output that looks good when visualising data, but ask yourself: how many of those chances came under pressure? With the scoreline tight? In the first half they mustered one shot to an expected goals return of 0.04.

United often start matches flat. First halves are cautious. Only West Ham of ever-present Premier League teams have scored fewer first-half goals that United since Amorim took charge. The risk-taking comes later, usually when they're trailing or chasing a result.

Man Utd v Sunderland tip: Lay home side on Betfair Exchange

Amorim's United might be improving, albeit from a very low starting point. But if you're leaning on their xG for answers, you're missing the questions that matter most: When are they creating? Why are they creating? And what does that say about their in-game control and ability to stop the opposition from creating big moments?

If a team only looks dangerous when it's losing, how dangerous is it, really? That's a red flag and why United will continue to be a fantastic team to bet against with Amorim at the helm.

United are a bang average mid-table team dressed in designer clothes and one that is still being priced up with the Manchester United of 2009 thrown into the equation at times - like this weekend at home to Sunderland where you can lay the home team at 1.52 on the Betfair Exchange.

Despite over a decade of chaos, churn and comedy defending, it's still a club that draw in public money like few others - which in turn keeps their price shorter than it should be.

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Lay Manchester United v Sunderland @ [1.52}